NFL Week 3 Picks Against The Spread & Straight Up For 2020

Thursday Night Football here as the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Miami Dolphins. The Jags were widely expected to be the worst team in the league entering the season, but they sure haven’t looked like it. After upsetting the Colts as huge underdogs in Week 1, they nearly pulled off the same thing against the Titans in Week 2. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 0-2–and they somehow look worse than they did last year. Gardner Minshew II has been having a lot of success so far, and he should be able to keep it going against this barely-there Miami defense. The Dolphins’ big splash signing this past offseason was top cornerback Byron Jones, and he just went down with an injury in Week 2. He’s not going to play on Thursday, which is a huge boost for Minshew. The Dolphins just let Josh Allen pass for 417 yards and four touchdowns and they’ve been getting shredded on the ground, as well. With Tua Tagovailoa waiting in the wings, the team doesn’t seem to be fighting as hard for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Lay the points with the Jags here.

I think this total has gotten a bit too high. Jacksonville has traded away a ton of defensive talent over the past year, but it has quietly added a lot at the same time. Rookie first-round cornerback C.J. Henderson looks like a star in the making, as he already has a Defensive Rookie of the Week award under his belt. With Myles Jack and Joe Schobert, the Jags boast a solid linebacking unit, and the other Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson have the potential to be great pass-rushers. Miami’s run defense has been a weakness, so I think the Jags will come out with a run-heavy game-plan that features a lot of James Robinson to keep the clock churning. Fitzpatrick has regressed sharply, so I don’t see this one being a shootout.

The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Cincinnati Bengals here for what can only be described as a must-win game. Philly is now 0-2 on the year, and Carson Wentz has been terrible through two weeks. Fortunately a date with the Bengals is exactly what the doctor ordered for any struggling offense, and the Eagles should win big here. Baker Mayfield struggled mightily in Week 1, and then was able to torch Cincy for 9.5 yards per attempt. The Bengals’ run defense can’t stop anybody, as they gave up 6.6 yards per carry to the Browns’ running backs, so Miles Sanders should be in for a big day here. Joe Burrow is promising, but he’s still a rookie with a terrible offensive line. Philly’s talented defensive front will be able to get pressure, which will be the difference in this game. Burrow will wilt with Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, and Fletcher Cox in his face, and the Eagles always seem to deliver when their backs are up against the wall.

The under also makes some sense in this spot. Cincy’s defense has been terrible don’t get me wrong, but Wentz and the Eagles’ offense have been out of sync. Philly’s receiving corp is still banged up, and I don’t see the Bengals scoring much at all here. When Cincinnati had to play a tough defense in Week 1, they mustered only 13 points. They’ve got one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has to be licking his chops as he loves to be aggressive. Philadelphia has yet to top 19 points through two weeks, and I don’t think they’re going to suddenly explode here.

Two teams that both suffered some devastating injuries in Week 2 will face off here as the New York Giants host the San Francisco 49ers. I’ve got to go with the home underdog here. San Francisco is without Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Deebo Samuel, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and plenty of others. They’ll also be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and I think they’ve got to be demoralized. Even when they were healthier in Week 1 they still didn’t look good, losing to the Cardinals as big favorites. The Giants lost Saquon Barkley, but he didn’t have any room to run before going down and I don’t think his absence will impact them too much. New York very nearly upset the Bears in Chicago last week, and now get to return home for a must-win game. San Francisco’s defensive front is normally the heart and soul of the team, but after the injuries to Ford, Thomas, and Bosa and the trade of DeForest Buckner, there’s not a ton left there.

I love the over in this spot, and it’s one of my favorite plays of the week. Daniel Jones has actually looked good this season when he’s had time to throw, and will all the injuries to the 49ers’ defensive line, he should be sitting comfortably in the pocket. Even without Barkley, he’s still got a ton of weapons with Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram at his disposal. Garoppolo hasn’t done anything special this season, and quite frankly I don’t think there’s much of a downgrade from him to Mullens. Oddsmakers are overcompensating for the losses of Garoppolo and Barkley, and Kyle Shanahan is going to let Mullens air it out against this exploitable Giants secondary.

The suddenly resurgent Cleveland Browns will host the Washington Football Team here. Everybody is back onboard the Browns bandwagon all the sudden, but I’m not ready to declare all their problems solved just because of one narrow win over the Bengals. This secondary still has plenty of issues, as evidenced by the fact they just let a rookie throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in his first career road start on a short week. Cincinnati might have the worst defense in the league, so I’m not giving Baker Mayfield too much credit. Washington lost a tough game to a Cardinals team that looks great at the moment, and the week before they upset the Eagles. They’re clearly fighting hard for head coach Ron Rivera, and they’re not going to roll over here. The strength of their team is their defensive front, and Mayfield struggles when his offensive line doesn’t hold up. He had all day to throw against Cincy, but that won’t be the case here. Grab the points with Washington.

I also like the under a lot here. Washington wants to be a defensive team, and they simply can’t move the ball too well on offense right now. They put up only 15 points against Arizona, and most of their points against Philly came off short fields. With Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Daron Payne, they’ve got a ton of talent on the defensive line. Those guys will be able to put pressure on Mayfield, which will wreck Cleveland’s gameplan. When Mayfield was under duress frequently in Week 1, the Browns put up only six points. Cleveland has a talented defensive front as well, and Washington’s best offensive lineman Brandon Scherff just went down with a knee injury which is a massive blow. Both quarterbacks will be running for their lives.

The first-ever “Watt Bowl” will take place on Sunday afternoon with Steelers outside linebacker T.G. Watt and fullback Derek Watt facing their older brother J.J. Watt, the elite defensive end for the Houston Texans. This game opened up at Houston +6 and has come down to +3.5. When you dig into the metrics, this looks like a really tough matchup for the Texans. The Steelers defense is an elite unit, which finished first in pass rush efficiency in 2019 and currently leads the league so far this year with 10 sacks in two games. Houston had the 27th ranked offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency in 2019 and ranks dead last so far through two games in 2020, giving up a league-high eight sacks. Admittedly, the Texans have probably had the toughest schedule in the NFL–facing the Chiefs and Ravens–but it doesn’t get any easier here against the Steelers. It also doesn’t get much easier on the other side of the ball for Houston, which had the 25th-ranked defense in pass efficiency and 19th defense in rushing efficiency. The Texans also lost run-stuffer D.J. Reader to the Bengals during the offseason. Deshaun Watson will be running for his life once again on Sunday, so take the Steelers.

The Steelers should have some success moving the ball against a poor defense. They have put up 26 points in consecutive weeks against the Broncos and Giants. What is promising for the Steelers and their fans is a solid week-to-week improvement in yards per play from 5.5 in Week 1 to 6.4 in Week 2. James Conner is back healthy, Diontae Johnson is building on his impressive rookie season, and Chase Claypool had his first NFL touchdown last week on an 84-yard bomb. If the Steelers can improve once again on offense, then they’ll put up 30-plus points. The Texans’ offense has weapons and is more than capable of putting up points. They scored only 20 points in Week 1 and 16 in Week 2, but the Steelers let Jeff Driskel hang around last week–so I would lean over.

Few people would have predicted the Raiders to be 2-0 in their first season in Las Vegas, and they could at least come close to making it three on the spin when they visit New England on Sunday. Head coach Jon Gruden’s team has been firing on offense with 34 points racked up in each of its first two games. The opener against Carolina saw Josh Jacobs run it into the endzone three times, while quarterback Derek Carr proved he’s still got plenty left in the tank with a trio of touchdown passes. There is no doubt that the Raiders’ offense is filled with confidence, and after Seattle QB Russell Wilson threw three TDs last week this Patriots defense looks vulnerable. Of course, we’ve all learned by now that you can never write off Bill Belichick’s team in New England, and the Patriots can be expected to come out firing off the back of that narrow loss to Seattle. But for all of Cam Newton’s heroics he still has just one passing touchdown to his name. By comparison, Vegas has allowed only two passing touchdowns this season and based on what the Raiders have shown so far they can make this a close encounter.

As mentioned earlier, the Raiders offense has been firing on all cylinders in both the run and passing game; anything close to a repeat of those first two performances can see this game turn into a shootout. New England comes into this on the back of giving up 35 points to the Seahawks, but it did well to move the chains on offense. Veteran wide receiver Julian Edelman put up a monster 179 yards and already has 13 receptions this season. Heading into Week 3, the Las Vegas defense has allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league, and the Patriots can be expected to cause more problems in that area.

Neither of these teams has tasted defeat this season. A tight game would come as no surprise, so it looks like it’s worth backing the Rams with the points. After an overhaul of talent, many feared Los Angeles could be in regression mode–particularly being situated in the ultra-competitive NFC West. But head coach Sean McVay’s team is holding its own so far with two solid wins. Jared Goff has been looking a much better player than he did last season, and the committee backfield seems to be working well for the Rams. Even with Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown questionable, Darrell Henderson looks capable of stepping up. Perhaps most impressive about Los Angeles, though, has been its defense–which held both Dallas and Philadelphia to less than 20 points. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz both had substandard completion percentages, and Josh Allen could soon join them given that he isn’t particularly known for his accuracy. The Bills’ signal-caller did throw four touchdowns last week, however, and has looked good so far. Then again, anyone can look good against the Jets and Dolphins. The Bills still still have a lot to prove, so taking the Rams is the best bet.

So far this season the Rams have held the Cowboys to 17 points and the Eagles to 19 points, and given that Buffalo’s offensive talent isn’t quite up to scratch with those two, this one looks likely to be low scoring. As mentioned, the Bills have played only Miami and the Jets so far–so it’s difficult to judge how good they actually are on offense. Their defense statistically has been stout with the third-fewest rushing yards allowed so far. Given Los Angeles’ potential issues at running back, that could be more of a problem against Buffalo and it would be fair to say that the defense of both teams is better than the offense. With that in mind, going under on the points looks the way to go.

The Tennessee Titans will be trying to remain undefeated when they visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Tennessee took care of business in its first two games and did so in different ways. Following a defensive struggle against Denver, Ryan Tannehill tossed four touchdown passes in Week 2 to give his team a 33-30 victory over Jacksonville. How well-rounded are these Titans in 2020? Well, Derrick Henry–without question one of the best players in the entire league–is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has not scored a touchdown and they are still undefeated. Another win should be in the cards this weekend and a date with Minnesota may be just what the doctor ordered for Henry. The Vikings are 29th in the NFL in total defense, 28th in rushing defense, and 24th in yards per play allowed (6.1). Losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis have them plummeting down our power rankings, and for good reason. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall, 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as favorites. Minnesota is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 against opponents with winning records and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog. Go with Tennessee.

As mentioned above, the Vikings have been a disaster on defense so far. They watched Aaron Rodgers and the Packers pin 43 points on them and an unspectacular Colts offense engineered 28 points last weekend. That is good news for Tannehill, who is completing 70.1 percent of his passes for 488 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. For Minnesota, Dalvin Cook has already scored three times on the ground and Adam Thielen is up to his usual tricks with three receiving touchdowns. Thielen especially could benefit from Tennessee’s weak pass rush. The over is 11-4 in the Titans’ last 15 overall, 5-2 in their last seven on the road, and 7-2 in their last nine as favorites. Look for this one to go over the total.

It won’t feel good betting the New York Jets, but you’ve got to do it this week against the Indianapolis Colts. This line has simply gotten out of control, and oddsmakers have overreacted too much to the first couple of weeks. This Jets team has been getting dragged in the media, so I expect them to come out on fire and with a chip on their shoulder here. The Colts’ big win over the Vikings had more to do with Minnesota’s incompetence than anything else, and they suffered a couple of key injuries. Wideout Parris Campbell, who had shown a great rapport with Phillip Rivers, went down with a knee injury, while starting safety Malik Hooker tore his ACL. Now is the time to buy low on the Jets at the absolute bottom of their market, and sell high on the Colts following their blowout win. New York had a tough schedule to start the year, and they aren’t quite as bad as they seem.

The under also makes a lot of sense here. The loss of Campbell and his speed greatly impacts what the Colts want to do on offense, and they’re already without starting running back Marlon Mack and starting tight end Jack Doyle. The Jets haven’t been able to move the ball at all, putting up only 30 points through the first two weeks, and most of those points came in garbage time. The Colts just held Kirk Cousins to 113 yards passing last week, so I don’t see Sam Darnold lighting anything up. Indianapolis is now first in the league in total defense through two weeks, so I think this one is going to be very low scoring. The Jets are also very banged up on offense, with Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and Breshad Perriman all injured.

Tom Brady will try to give his new team back-to-back victories when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The Buccaneers opened what will be a brief but also a potentially successful era with a loss to NFC South rival New Orleans but bounced back by beating Carolina 31-17 last weekend. It was a different newcomer who did most of the damage against the Panthers. Running back Leonard Fournette, a late acquisition during the offseason, rushed 12 times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps the best news for Tampa Bay is that it now gets to face a banged-up Denver squad. Perhaps no team in the NHL has endured a worse September than the Broncos, who lost linebacker Von Miller (ankle) for the year prior to Week 1 and then saw quarterback Drew Lock (shoulder) and receiver Courtland Sutton (knee) go down in Week 2. Lock is out for at least a few games and Sutton is done for the season. Denver is 0-2 with setbacks against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay is 3-1-2 ATS in its last six overall, 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road, and 4-1 ATS in its last five against opponents with losing records. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight September games. It is also worth noting that the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings. Roll with the Buccaneers.

The Broncos scored 14 points in their opener against the Titans and were held to 21 by the Steelers. Things only figure to get worse now that Lock is sidelined and backup Jeff Driskel is under center. Driskel, drafted out of Louisiana Tech in 2016, had played in just 12 NFL games prior to coming in for Lock last week. He has completed just 58.7 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Tampa Bay’s defensive front is an absolute force and will surely cause problems for both Driskel and running back Melvin Gordon. The good news for Denver is that its defense is respectable. It is allowing a modest 21.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play. The under is 18-8-1 in the Broncos’ last 27 overall, 12-4 in their last 16 at home, and 16-7-1 in their last 24 as underdogs. Look for this one to stay under the total.

The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to stay undefeated when they entertain the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. Seattle is coming off season-opening victories over Atlanta and New England, scoring a combined 73 points in those games. Accompanying that scoring binge is Russell Wilson’s rise to the top of the odds list for 2020 NFL MVP. Wilson has completed 52 of 63 passes for 610 yards with nine touchdowns and one interceptions. That’s right; through two contests he has almost as many touchdowns (nine) as incompletions (11). Dallas opened with a 20-17 loss to the Rams before staging an epic comeback to beat Atlanta 40-39 this past weekend. There is no doubt that the Cowboys should be 0-2, as the Falcons handed them the Week 2 victory on silver platter by collapsing on special teams and also defense throughout the fourth quarter. It is true that the ‘Boys did well to come back, but trailing Atlanta 20-0 (second quarter) and 29-10 (halftime) at home is alarming. Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall, 2-7 ATS in its last nine against opponents with winning records, and 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as favorites. Go with Seattle.

Many figured that Dallas vs. Atlanta would be the highest-scoring game in Week 2. It was, with 79 points being put on the board. It would also be no surprise if Cowboys-Seahawks takes home the same honors in Week 3. As mentioned above, Wilson is on an absolute roll in the early stages of this season. Dallas ranks 23rd in the league against the pass so far, which gives Wilson all the more reason to continue his success. Of course, 23rd is much better than the Seahawks have been in the same department. They rank dead last in the NFL–and by a mile–in passing defense, which is music to the ears of Dak Prescott. The Cowboys’ signal-caller went 34-of-47 for 450 yards against the Falcons and he accounted for four total touchdowns (three rushing). The over is 13-6 in the Cowboys’ last 19 overall and 7-2 in their last nine against the NFC. It is also 3-1-1 in the Seahawks’ last five overall, 3-1-1 in their last five at home, and 15-7-1 in their last 23 against the NFC. Take the over.