College Football Playoff Predictions 2026: Best Make & Miss Bets

We are merely days away from the official start of the 2026 college football season, and our experts are building up to the new campaign with a ton of content in our NCAAF futures guide. At this point, myself and fellow college football handicapper Sam Avellone have gone through and broken down every conference in the Power 4 and Group of Six with extensive previews for each league. With the season just around the corner, there are still a few additional ways to attack the futures market and place wagers that could prove to be valuable tickets when November rolls around.

Up next, our extensive college football preseason coverage continues with my favorite College Football Playoff picks for the upcoming season. Which teams will make the playoff and which ones will miss out on the postseason? Let’s dive into the latest college football odds and our expert's NCAAF picks in the College Football Playoff market for the 2026 campaign.

Don't miss our expert's National Championship predictions and +800 best bet!

NCAAF CFP Best Bet: Oklahoma Sooners to make the College Football Playoff (+210)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +180.

Last summer, I was pretty optimistic that Oklahoma's new look offense and stout defense would be enough to get them to the College Football Playoff as a relative longshot. Despite the fact that the Sooners faced a brutal schedule and dealt with a number of key injuries, they still finished 10-2 and made the postseason for the first time in eight years. This year, I'm even more enthusiastic about the Sooners, and I believe Brent Venables' team is significantly better than it was a season ago. Oklahoma returns the most starters in the SEC, including a fully healthy John Mateer at quarterback, plus four starters on the offensive line and their top running back and wide receiver. Speaking of wide receivers, the additions of Trell Harris and Parker Livingstone slot in perfectly alongside Isaiah Sategna in the slot. Provided that Mateer stays healthy, this should be a much improved offense in the second year of Ben Arbuckles' system.

If the offense takes a step forward, this team should be a force to be reckoned with because I have zero questions about this defense. Venables is probably the best defensive mind in the sport for my money and this should be the best unit he's had in his tenure in Norman. The Sooners defensive line is among the best in the nation and full of impactful upperclassmen who are growing into their roles as multi-year starters. Furthermore, the linebacker room got a major boost with the return of fifth-year senior Owen Heinecke following an excellent 2025 season, joining impactful transfer Cole Sullivan from Michigan. The cherry on top is a special teams unit that should be among the best in the nation as well. There is so much to like about this team, and even with a very difficult schedule, Oklahoma will likely be favored in nine games. If the Sooners can knock off Michigan as a very short underdog in Week 2, another 10-win season and a berth in the playoff is absolutely on the table.

Dive into our expert's full SEC preview and predictions, plus a +330 best bet!

NCAAF CFP Best Bet: Texas A&M Aggies to miss the College Football Playoff (-180)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -200.

Following an 11-win regular season in 2025, the next logical step for Texas A&M would be to progress further in the College Football Playoff and inch closer to its first national title in the modern era. However, the market is pretty skeptical that Mike Elko's team is going to be able to replicate that level of success in 2026, and I'm inclined to agree. After all, while the Aggies are ranked 14th nationally in returning production, this is a team that just saw a program-record 10 players taken in this past NFL Draft, and the void will clearly be felt on both lines of scrimmage. The offensive line was the strength of the team for Texas A&M a season ago, and the loss of four multi-year starters will certainly be felt. If the new group struggles a bit and the Aggies are unable to produce a successful ground attack as a result, that sets up major issues for quarterback Marcel Reed, who has struggled mightily when pressured — as we saw in a pair of very poor performances against Texas and Miami to close the season.

Not only should Reed be expected to struggle against a much tougher SEC schedule this year, I didn't even mention that he won't have Collin Klein as his offensive coordinator, as the former Heisman finalist has moved on to be the Kansas State head coach. Additionally, the Texas A&M defense lost a number of starters in the front seven to the NFL, including top linebacker Taurean York and a trio of players on the defensive line. With that in mind, the trench play on both sides of the ball should take a massive step back, and that doesn't bode well when assessing this schedule. Unlike a season ago, the Aggies have a number of difficult road games on the slate, including trips to LSU, Alabama, South Carolina and Oklahoma — before finishing the year with a game against Texas. I could see as many as five losses on this schedule, but even if Texas A&M finishes with a 9-3 record, it's far from a guarantee that it would get the nod over some other SEC foes to grab one of the coveted final few playoff spots.

Don't miss our full Big Ten preview and predictions, including a +270 best bet!

NCAAF CFP best bet: New Mexico Lobos to make the College Football Playoff (+2000)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +1500.

I've already extolled the virtues of New Mexico in our Mountain West preview and predictions piece, but I'm thinking bigger than just a conference championship for Jason Eck's side this season. New Mexico ranks 21st in returning production per SP+, and both sides of the ball are pretty well-positioned to sustain any losses due to injury. Even in the midst of a nine-win campaign, the offense struggled at times a season ago — which explains why the staff made it a point to attack the transfer portal. Some of the notable new faces include talented quarterback Luke Moga (Oregon) to back up Jack Layne, wide receiver Troy Omeire (UNLV, Texas) and a pair of running backs from Memphis and North Texas to strengthen the skill positions. When you consider the fact that New Mexico also brings back its entire offensive line, we can be confident in this offense to take another step forward this season.

On the other side of the ball, the Lobos return a number of key pieces at all three levels, including Jaxton Eck at linebacker — the preseason Defensive Player of the Year in the Mountain West. New Mexico also added some important depth with transfers from the likes of USC, Cincinnati, Boise State, Memphis and more. Most importantly, the schedule is pretty favorable and provides the Lobos with a very high floor. New Mexico should start 5-1 before a crucial bye week arrives prior to a road trip to Hawaii, which certainly lessens the potential travel hurdle of a trip to the island. The Lobos also have the advantage of hosting their three biggest games of the season: UNLV, North Dakota State and Air Force. I project New Mexico to be favored in a whopping 11 games this season, so I'll gladly take a flyer on a 20-1 ticket on one of the best teams in the Group of Six to make the College Football Playoff.

See our Big 12 preview and predictions, with three best bets from our expert