College Football Win Total Predictions 2026: 5 Best Over/Under Bets

We are merely days away from the official start of the 2026 college football season, and our experts are building up to the new campaign with a ton of content in our NCAAF futures guide. At this point, myself and fellow college football handicapper Sam Avellone have gone through and broken down every conference in the Power Four and Group of Six with extensive previews for each league. With the season just around the corner, there are still a few additional ways to attack the futures market and place wagers that could prove to be valuable tickets when November rolls around.

Up next, our extensive college football preseason coverage continues with my favorite win-total picks for the upcoming season. Which teams will exceed expectations and which ones will underwhelm? Let’s dive into the latest college football odds and our expert's NCAAF picks in the regular-season wins market for the 2026 campaign.

Don't miss our expert's National Championship predictions and +800 best bet!

NCAAF Win Total best bet: Kansas Jayhawks Under 6.5 wins (-160)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Under 5.5 wins also available at +125 at time of publishing.

Over the years, I've found that the majority of bets I make in the regular season win total market tend to be of the pessimistic variety. That will be the theme of this piece, and we'll get started in the Big 12, where I'll be selling a team that I've been quite fond of in recent seasons. Lance Leipold is a coach I have a lot of respect for, and he's been able to get this Kansas program out of the doldrums over the course of his tenure. Leipold is reuniting with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki following a rough couple of years for Kotelnicki at Penn State. Those two have a tall task on their hands when looking at this roster, especially at quarterback. Jalon Daniels was with the program for six seasons and was an electric player when healthy. The same can't be said when looking at projected starter Cole Ballard (three touchdowns and four interceptions in 12 career games played) and an offense that lost three longtime starters on the line of scrimmage, plus a starting tight end and each of its top two running backs and wide receivers.

Not only is the cupboard completely bare on offense, but the defense is in flux as well after it lost four trusted starters to the transfer portal and NFL. To make matters worse, Trevon McAlpine — the Jayhawks top transfer portal acquisition — has a torn ACL and will miss the season. Add all of that into a schedule that features a trip to London early in the season, plus road games against Utah, Kansas State, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. I have a hard time seeing Kansas getting to six wins this fall, so seven wins feels the absolute ceiling for a roster with a dearth of talent at most of the key positions. I don't mind playing Under 5.5 wins at plus money, but I have no issues with drinking some juice here and paying for the extra win.

See our Big 12 preview and predictions with three best bets from our expert

NCAAF Win Total best bet: Missouri Tigers Under 6.5 wins (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

Missouri fans surely enjoyed reading about Kansas' downward trajectory this season, but the Tigers could be in for a disappointing season of their own in 2026. Missouri finished 8-4 in the regular season a year ago, but Eli Drinkwitz's group lost to each of the four ranked teams it faced, with most of the defeats coming in fairly convincing fashion. How did this program address its lack of success in big SEC games? By bringing in Austin Simmons, who was awful at Ole Miss before being relieved of his starting quarterback duties by Trinidad Chambliss. With new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey stepping in following a disastrous stint at Michigan, Simmons doesn't exactly have the greatest infrastructure in place to help him make strides at this level. Ahmad Hardy was supposed to be Simmons' security blanket and a bellcow in the backfield, but he suffered a gunshot wound in the spring and is still working through the rehab process. Furthermore, the Tigers offensive line is decimated compared to the stability it had in 2025, which doesn't bode well when you're dealing with a quarterback who really struggles when pressured.

While the offense is likely to take a significant step back this fall, the defense could at least provide some stability for this team in theory. With that said, the Tigers still lost a ton of production from last season's unit, and I'm not convinced that this combination of new and remaining pieces can replicate what made last year's team successful. At the very least, the September schedule mostly provides a nice runway for Simmons to get his legs under him, but there's still a road trip to Kansas in Week 2 for a game that the Jayhawks desperately need. Elsewhere, Missouri is set to take on Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Ole Miss over the span of seven weeks, and I didn't even include a matchup against Florida that should be a true coin flip. I'll be looking for plenty of spots to bet against the Tigers this season, and it could be a long season in Columbia.

Dive into our expert's full SEC preview and predictions, plus a +330 best bet!

NCAAF Win Total best bet: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Under 6.5 wins (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

Georgia Tech is coming off its best season in a decade, and the Yellow Jackets' 9-4 campaign caps off a very successful three-season run for Brent Key's group — finishing with a 23-16 record from 2023-2025. Unfortunately, this season projects to be a reset year for this program following the departure of longtime quarterback Haynes King, along with a myriad of other players on an offense that ranked 26th nationally a season ago. Gone are a trio of offensive lineman that were all multi-year starters, along with multiple wide receivers, the entire tight end room and starting running back. I didn't even mention the loss of Aaron Philo, who was expected to be the new starting quarterback before he followed offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner — a very respected mind across the sport — to Florida. I do like the addition of Justice Haynes at running back, but this is a unit that has no experience and is relying on Alberto Mendoza to have a breakout season in his first real action at this level of football.

The theme of experienced players departing the program continues on defense, as the Yellow Jackets lost all four starters in the secondary, each of whom spent multiple years in this program as starters. New defensive coordinator Jason Semore takes over at the controls for a unit that doesn't have much to work with up front and in the back end, and it's reasonable to assume that his system might take a bit to sink it with a group this green. Additionally, the non-conference schedule is difficult out of the gate, with games against an unknown Colorado team, followed by a matchup against Tennessee. In ACC play, road trips to Virginia Tech, Clemson, Pittsburgh and Stanford should be difficult, and I haven't even mentioned games against Louisville and Georgia in November. I expect this team to lose four conference games, plus the two SEC contests in nonconference play, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Yellow Jackets missed a bowl this year.

Now, check out our expert's full ACC preview and predictions, featuring a +2000 best bet!

NCAAF Win Total best bet: Illinois Fighting Illini Under 7.5 wins (-160)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175.

The last couple years of Illinois football have been something to behold, with the Illini racking up 19 wins and a sterling against the spread record over the last two seasons. However, things could look a lot different in 2026, and it starts with what Bret Bielema's group lost from a season ago. On offense, Luke Altmyer is off the NFL after serving as the starting quarterback in Champaign for three seasons. To make matters worse, four starters from the offensive line are off to the NFL and a number of starters from the defensive front are also gone, leaving Illinois at a massive disadvantage in the trenches. The players the Illini brought in via the transfer portal on both lines of scrimmage were not exactly the most exciting gets either, which poses plenty of questions about how the program intends to approach this season.

There's also the matter of Illinois' recent success in the clutch, with Bielema's team finishing with a 13-3 record in one-score games over the last three seasons. Given the makeup of the team now, it's certainly reasonable to expect that some pretty significant regression is coming for the Illini in that department. The schedule features games against Ohio State and Oregon, plus a tricky last five weeks (at Maryland, vs Nebraska, at UCLA, vs Iowa, at Northwestern). With so many coin flip games on the schedule, along with the fact that this appears to be a bit of a rebuilding year for this program, I have a hard time seeing Illinois getting to eight wins for a third consecutive season. I'll gladly jump on under 7.5 wins while it's still available in the market.

Don't miss our full Big Ten preview and predictions, including a +270 best bet!

NCAAF Win Total best bet: UConn Huskies Under 5.5 wins (-125)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

To close out my quintet of win total unders for the upcoming season, I'll be banking on the regression monster to bite this UConn program in a major way this fall. The Huskies have been one of the best stories in the sport in recent years, having racked up eight and nine wins respectively over the last two regular seasons. However, we can expect a massive drop-off this year following the departure of head coach Jim Mora Jr. to Colorado State, and the insertion of former Toledo head coach Jason Candle in his place. For those of us that follow the Group of Six, it's apparent that there is a massive gap between these coaches, as Candle consistently did less with more as the had coach of the most talented team in the MAC on a yearly basis. Now, he's in a much harder place to win, and he's taking over a team that has undergone a complete reset in the offseason.

UConn is a whopping 134th in returning production heading into this season, and the Huskies took in 56 transfers, while only bringing back two starters from the 2025 squad. While the Huskies bring in 19 transfers from Toledo, only two of them were starters in the MAC a season ago. That is certainly cause for concern, and so is the quarterback room — a position that had previously been held by Joe Fagnano (28/1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2025) for the last two seasons. Furthermore, while the schedule only features a trio of Power Four teams, the Huskies still have to face some of the better teams in the Group of Six, including James Madison and Old Dominion at home — plus road trips to Air Force, Miami Ohio and a game at Wyoming to close out the season. It's going to take multiple upsets for this group to get to bowl eligibility, so I'll gladly take my chances with under 5.5 wins at the current price.

Don't miss our full Mountain West preview and predictions — our expert has a +330 best bet!