Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/17/26

Erick Fedde has tossed 815.2 career innings at the major league level, and he has a career BABIP of .290 with a career strand rate of 71.7%. This season, his opponents have a .208 BABIP, and when on base, they are stranded 81.6% of the time. Fedde ranks 4th percentile in whiff rate, and he fills up the strike zone. Further, he ranks 22nd percentile in barrel rate.

Yes, Fedde has a respectable 3.77 ERA through 43 innings, but his 6.03 FIP is far more worrisome, especially in a matchup against a Cubs lineup ranking 8th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Fedde has also allowed 7 home runs in his last 3 starts alone, with at least 2 allowed in each of those outings. I believe we end up seeing Fedde’s ERA closer to 5 than his current mark.

Colin Rea is the scheduled starter for the Cubs on Sunday. Rea has pitched both out of the bullpen and as a starter for Chicago this season, and he has a 4.68 ERA through his first 42.1 innings of work. The right-hander has a 4.23 FIP but his 5.34 xERA isn’t ideal due to poor batted-ball metrics. Rea ranks just 14th percentile in hard-hit rate and 17th percentile in barrel rate this season while failing to generate many whiffs. The White Sox lineup has a respectable 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and they should be able to contribute towards the total. The wind is blowing in for this game, but I still favor the over.

Cubs vs White Sox prediction: Over 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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