Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/19/26

Jesus Luzardo has been unlucky this season. He enters Tuesday with a 5.07 ERA. That being said, his xERA of 3.17 and his 2.97 FIP suggest he has pitched much better. Through 49.2 innings of work Luzardo ranks 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He is earning an 83rd percentile ground ball rate while limiting walks and earning a healthy strikeout rate. Despite a .233 xBA opponents have a .366 BABIP against Luzardo so far this season. He is also only stranding 62.9% of runners which would be a career low rate. I look for those marks to regress to his career numbers and this is a good get right spot for Luzardo against a Reds lineup ranking below average against southpaw pitching.

Chase Burns is also a very solid starting option in this game as he makes his 10th start of the season. Burns enters Tuesday with a 1.87 ERA through his first 53 innings of work, earning 55 strikeouts along the way. The right-hander has a 2.97 xERA and 3.52 FIP so we should see him allow some runs eventually, and this matchup against the Phillies is a tough one. Philadelphia was hot offensively against the Pirates in their last series, even getting to Paul Skenes for 5 earned runs. With the form of both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber I side with Philadelphia at current pricing.

Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction: Phillies ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.