Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/23/26

The final game on Saturday’s loaded MLB slate pits the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks in what will be the 3rd game of a 4-game weekend set. They split the first 2 games, as each team will be looking to take the series lead when Michael Lorenzen and Zac Gallen take the mound. 

I’m expecting runs on Saturday night; neither pitcher has been particularly reliable this year. Lorenzen is 2-6 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.91 WHIP, and while his advanced metrics suggest the results have been worse than expected, a 5.98 xERA, 4.40 xFIP and 4.50 SIERA aren’t exactly good marks, either. To make matters worse, Lorenzen just saw the Diamondbacks last week. In that game, he gave up 6 earned runs on 9 hits in just 4.2 innings, making it the 3rd time this season he surrendered at least 6 earned runs in a start. 

Gallen has been better, though not by much. His 2-4 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are right around where they should be given his 5.16 xERA, 4.35 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA, while he has surrendered 16 earned runs in 20.1 May innings. He did not face Arizona last weekend, but in 42 career at-bats against Gallen, the Rockies are hitting .333 with 2 home runs and just 7 strikeouts. 

The first 2 games of this series were low-scoring, but it wasn’t for lack of baserunners. In fact, these teams combined for 16 hits last night, but they left 15 combined runners on base and were just 4-for-19 collectively with runners in scoring position. It was a similar story in Game 1, when they left 16 combined runners on base and were 2-of-16 with runners in scoring position. Given the pitching matchup, I expect those runners to cross the plate today. 

Rockies vs Diamondbacks best bet: Over 9 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to 9.5 (-105).

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