Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/17/26

I favor the Tampa Bay Rays over the Miami Marlins in their matchup Sunday afternoon. The teams have split the first 2 games of the series in high-scoring affairs, seeing 9 and 15 runs scored, but expect fewer runs in Sunday’s matchup with 2 talented starters taking the mound. Drew Rasmussen is the scheduled starter for Tampa Bay, as the right-hander makes his 9th start of the season. His last 2 outings were against the same Toronto Blue Jays lineup, tossing 6 innings with 3 earned runs allowed in each outing. Through 42.2 innings, Rasmussen has posted a 3.16 ERA, 2.97 xERA, and a 3.70 FIP. He is not walking anyone, he generates ground balls and his 25.3% strikeout rate is a healthy mark. Tampa Bay also has a rested bullpen behind him entering Sunday.

Eury Perez is set to start this game for the Marlins, marking his 10th start of the 2026 campaign. Perez is one of the more talented young arms in the sport, but he has yet to find his groove this season. Through 47.1 innings, his 4.94 ERA is shadowed by a 4.89 xERA and 4.83 FIP. He is earning a 25.6% strikeout rate but issuing far too many free passes. His 6th-percentile barrel rate is also concerning in this spot. Tampa Bay has a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this season while Miami sits at 99. Miami also has a few bullpen arms that would be making their 3rd appearance in 4 days. At current pricing, I side with the Rays.

Rays vs Marlins prediction: TB Rays ML (-154) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

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