Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/23/26

In terms of arm talent at this stage in their careers, Saturday’s matchup between Paul Skenes and Patrick Corbin is about as lopsided as you’ll find. It is still baseball, and anything can happen, but the Pirates hold a massive starting pitching edge in Game 2 of this series. Corbin made 4 April starts totaling 19.1 innings of work. In those 4 outings the southpaw recorded 16 strikeouts with just 24 base runners and a 3.74 ERA. His 4 starts in May have been less effective. In 19 innings so far this month the veteran lefty has allowed 33 base runners with just 9 strikeouts, and his ERA has jumped to 4.74. Overall, his 4.23 ERA is shadowed by a 6.36 xERA, and I am not fond of backing Corbin moving forward. Pittsburgh has been weaker against lefties this season, but this is still a matchup they can take advantage of, especially with their young right-handed call-ups. 

Skenes is coming off his weakest start of the season. The reigning Cy Young Award winner allowed a home run and 5 earned runs total to the Phillies in a 6-0 Phillies win. I do expect a bounce back, however, as he has largely been dominant in 2026. Skenes enters Saturday with a 2.62 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 2.07 xERA. His miniscule 3.8% walk rate ranks 99th percentile and his 30.3% strikeout rate sits 93rd percentile. He has been equally dominant on the road and at home, and he has been tough on either handedness of batter. At current pricing Pittsburgh is a best bet for me on Saturday.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction: Pirates ML (-154) available at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.