Ricky Dimon
Tennis
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The Australian Open was a smashing success for me, going 27-13 on my daily best bets for a profit of +20.1 units. I almost sustained the momentum this past week with a +1200 outright play on John Isner at the Dallas Open. Isner reached the final and had four championship points in Sunday’s match against Yibing Wu, but he could not get across the finish line. The 6’10’’ American ended up falling 14-12 in the third-set tiebreaker.
Alas, let’s pick up the pieces and go for a winner this week. An absolutely loaded field of 32 players is taking the court in Rotterdam. Here are the odds and my best bets.
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ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament Rotterdam Open odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +300
Stefanos Tsitsipas +500
Jannik Sinner +750
Holger Rune +900
Andrey Rublev +1000
Alexander Zverev +1100
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1100
Hubert Hurkacz +1600
Borna Coric +2800
Grigor Dimitrov +2800
Pablo Carreno Busta +2800
3-star value play: Holger Rune (+900)
It’s hard for anyone to have a “good” draw when the quality of competition is this strong. The one player who does have a favorable path through the bracket, however, is Rune. Alexander Zverev is his nearest seed and Zverev is just now coming back from a nasty sprained ankle that he sustained in the French Open semifinals against Rafael Nadal. The unseeded floaters in Rune’s section are nothing special, either. It should also be noted that indoor hard courts suit the 19-year-old Dane’s game, as he triumphed at the Paris Masters this past fall – when he upset Novak Djokovic in the title match.
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2-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+500)
I’m not about to pass up the top seed when you can get him at +500 odds. Although Tsitsipas’ draw is not great on paper, it probably isn’t as bad as it looks at first glance. Potential second-round opponent Jannik Sinner is dangerous, but the Italian is making a quick turnaround after lifting the Montpellier trophy on Sunday and Tsitsipas has always fared well against him in the past. The 3rd-ranked Greek did not play last week so he should be well-rested and ready to get back in action on the heels of his runner-up performance at the Australian Open.
1-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+1000)
Daniil Medvedev is tempting, but I just can’t jump on the #6 seed when he is a considerable title favorite at +300. The value just isn’t there. It is there on fellow Russian Rublev, though, as he is the #2 seed and the 5th favorite. Rublev has won 12 ATP titles in his career and 5 have come at the 500-point level (meaning 500 ranking points go to the winner). That includes a victory at this same Rotterdam event in 2021. Don’t be surprised if the world #5 wins this title again.
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