College Football Week 3 Player Props: Best Bets & Picks
Are you looking for more betting options than just spreads, totals and money lines for Week 3 of college football? If so, I have you covered with my three favorite player props for Saturday’s action.
Let’s get right into the breakdown, and don’t forget the rest of our college football content, including our CFB best bets and CFB predictions for every FBS game this year.
CFB Player Prop: Ashton Daniels (FSU) Under 30.5 rushing yards (-118)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 28.5 (-110).
It could be rough sledding for Florida State’s offense in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, specifically for quarterback Ashton Daniels. This Alabama defense is tenacious, sitting fifth nationally in PPA and 15th in success rate allowed. Furthermore, the Tide are top-30 in havoc generated from their front seven outside of garbage time, and they’ve sacked opposing quarterbacks six times already – four last week at Kentucky – which is notable for this bet considering sack yards count against quarterback rushing yards at the collegiate level.
Through two FBS games, the Seminoles are outside the top 70 in havoc allowed by opposing front sevens, and Daniels has been sacked four times -- three of which came against SMU. This 'Bama defense is faster, better and stronger than SMU’s, so I can’t help but think Daniels will be running for his life for all four quarters again on Saturday. Sure, he will scramble for a couple chunk gains here and there -- but expect multiple sacks to negate them and help him stay under this number.
Get our full Florida State vs Alabama prediction
CFB Player Prop: LaNorris Sellers (SC) 240+ passing yards (-114)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 249.5 (-110).
Mississippi State typically has a very good secondary, which is of mild concern, but this is more of a bet on the expected tempo of this game than anything. Under Jeff Lebby, the Bulldogs were top-seven in seconds per play last year -- and with Kendal Briles now calling plays for South Carolina, the Gamecocks’ tempo should increase exponentially. For reference, TCU was top-35 in seconds per play last year under Briles.
Speaking of Briles, we have yet to see this offense truly unleashed under his lead yet this year, which, I believe, is creating value on this number. Briles and LaNorris Sellers will have the entire playbook to work with here, and none of us have seen what that actually entails on film yet. Advantage South Carolina.
Looking at Josh Hoover’s performances last year under Briles, he cleared 240 yards in all but two games, and he had fewer than 30 pass attempts just three times – all blowouts in either direction. Obviously, this isn’t a direct apples-to-apples comparison, but it gives us a rough idea of what we can expect from Briles and Sellers in a closely-contested contest Saturday. Even with State’s skill in the secondary, don’t be surprised to see Nyck Harbor leak behind the defense for multiple explosive catches to help buoy this bet.
Check out Sam's Mississippi State vs South Carolina five-star best bet
CFB Player Prop: Kewan Lacy (MISS) Under 84.5 rushing yards (-107)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 80.5 (-110).
This is absolutely a plug-your-nose type bet, as Kewan Lacy is a ferocious runner having rushed for over 1,500 yards last year. However, I’m not in love with the Ole Miss offensive line thus far. That unit sits 87th in stuff rate allowed and 98th in line yards outside of garbage time through two games. Furthermore, despite a blowout against Charlotte, Ole Miss is outside the top 90 in rush rate and 75th in rushing explosiveness, which isn’t ideal considering this LSU defense is a step up in class from both of Ole Miss’s previous opponents -- Louisville included. In fact, Lacy rushed for only 61 yards on 3.6 yards per carry against the Cardinals.
LSU is first in yards per play allowed, defensive PPA and defensive success rate in this young season. Specifically against the run, the Tigers are also first in rush PPA, rush success rate and rush explosiveness allowed, while sitting second in stuff rate and standard-downs PPA and third in total havoc generated. It could be a long night for the Ole Miss offensive line, and Lacy would be the victim in that scenario.
Now check out Caleb Wilfinger's three college football best bets for Saturday's Week 3 slate
