Best MLB player prop bet for Friday, 10/20: Bryce Harper gets pass to 1st base

Friday’s MLB slate brings us both championship series. Get your popcorn ready. Astros vs Rangers will begin the slate with a pivotal Game 5 to determine who will be one game away from going to the World Series, while the Phillies vs Diamondbacks will conclude the slate with the D-backs looking to tie up the series. You can read our MLB predictions for today’s matchups, but for now, let’s dive into the best MLB player prop bet for Friday, October 20, as we look to build on our 13-2 run!

Bryce Harper, PHI, Over 0.5 walks (-120)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I’ll start with this: The books are catching up to this prop. This opened at +115 on BetMGM while DraftKings opened at -120.  This would be the game I’d feel uneasy about backing Harper to walk. He’s set to face a left-handed opener in Joe Mantiply, who has a 5.7% BB%. Mantiply is projected to pitch the first inning since the Phillies have three LHH at the top of their lineup. Reports are that Mantiply will be followed by RHP Slade Cecconi or Ryne Nelson — both low walk-rate pitchers.

But we’re mainly targeting this player prop because of how teams pitch around Harper. Yesterday, Harper saw a total of 17 pitches, with just one in the strike zone. As you can see below from Joe Giglio on X, the pitch chart from each at-bat is astonishing.

Bryce Harper saw 17 pitches in Game 3. Just one was in the strike zone. He needs actual protection in the lineup or the Phillies will be effectively taking the bat out of the hands of their best hitter. pic.twitter.com/1B5HzSr8YC

— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) October 20, 2023

If the Phillies are smart, they’ll move RHH Alec Bohm out of the four-hole. He’s the culprit of Harper not getting quality pitches. I’d expect Nick Castellanos or J.T. Realmuto to be moved up in the order for Harper to swing away. But, manager Rob Thompson has said he likes Castellanos’ power in the seven hole with runners on. Even if the Phillies decide to shake their lineup up, I like Harper to get pitched around tonight.

The Pickswise team has made a killing on backing Harper to walk this postseason. This player prop has hit in 7 of 9 games this postseason, and we’ll continue to back it at playable odds.

Don’t miss our Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay at +708 odds!