We’re just 25 days away from the end of the 2024 MLB regular season, and as a result each game means a little bit more than the one before for teams fighting to win divisions and secure wild cards. What will today’s lineup have in store? I’ve picked out my best MLB player prop bet for Wednesday, September 4, targeting the Astros vs Reds matchup. You can also find out our MLB picks for today, but for now, let’s get into my top prop prediction.
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
There are some highly rated projected services that don’t like Spencer Arrighetti in the strikeout department today, but I am very fond of what I have seen from the Astros’ right-hander of late. Arrighetti began the season very poorly for the Astros, consistently struggling with his command of the strike zone. His last 9 starts have told a different story, however, even taking home American League Rookie of the Month with his performance in August. The right-hander has registered a double-digit swinging strike percentage in 8 of those 9 starts while accruing an overall swinging strike rate of 14.5% in that span. That is a very healthy mark that has helped Arrighetti clear this 5.5 strikeout prop in 7 of those 9 starts, including 4 of his 5 starts in August.
Not only has Arrighetti shown an ability to find that 6th strikeout, but he has flashed his upside several times with 10 or more strikeouts 4 times this season, including 3 of his last 5 starts. His last outing resulted in 11 strikeouts across 7.2 scoreless innings against a tough Phillies lineup, and now Arrighetti draws a softer spot in terms of opposing lineup strikeout rate. He faces the Reds today, and while Cincinnati is harder to deal with in Great American Ballpark, they are still a team worth targeting in the strikeout department. Recent games have seen lower strikeout totals for opposing right-handed starting pitchers, but the quality of those arms they have seen is certainly worth questioning.
Arrighetti has a 28% strikeout rate on the season and a 32.1% rate across his last 9 starts. His ability to generate 3rd strikes with numerous offerings is part of what had made Arrighetti so dominant of late. He utilizes 4 pitches at least 11.1% of the time and each of those top 4 offerings have generated at least 18 strikeouts. His sweeper and curveball both have whiff rates of at least 41.3% and he uses his change of pace well to keep opposing batters off balance. Arrighetti has seen a solid workload of late, throwing no fewer than 92 pitches in any of his last 7 starts, and with the Houston bullpen a bit taxed he should continue to see that length. The 5.5 prop may be the correct line, but the price on the over is too cheap to ignore and I would play this comfortably to around -120 odds.
You can get the best odds on our Spencer Arrighetti prop with Caesars Sportsbook, where right now new users can sign up by clicking here and receive up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance!
