Despite the much-deserved attention towards NFL Playoffs, there is still some quality NBA games being played today. My article two nights ago went 3-0 for +3.95U and I’m slowly starting to get my feel back after a rough stretch to start 2023. The Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, and Minnesota Timberwolves are all on back-to-backs. Early indications are that Giannis will be a scratch tonight in Miami and we are anxiously awaiting the game status of Tyler Herro, who recently became a father two nights ago. Sometimes, that is the extra motivation that can lead to an explosive game. Let’s dive into my favorite player props for tonight and our $5 and a Dream parlay!
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Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Plumlee has played exceptionally well in this recent 4-game road stretch for the Hornets, but he comes back home tonight to one of the toughest teams in the league for opposing centers. This number is above his January average (21 PR) and December average (17PR). The Celtics give up the 10th fewest points in the paint on the season and 7th fewest over the last 3 now that Rob Williams has returned. Plumlee had one game this season against Boston where he finished with 8 total points and rebounds, despite playing 27 minutes and not being in foul trouble. In 4 games last season vs BOS, Plumlee couldn’t clear this number. 1U
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Line available on Fanduel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s a tough matchup against MEM on a back-to-back, but the books have not properly adjusted Hield’s lines without Haliburton in the lineup. Last night, Hield had 11 potential assists and 11 rebound chances, but finished with 8 total on the night in a sloppy game vs the Hawks where the Pacers shot 39% from the field and 23% from deep. I expect to see the Pacers more settled into their roles after acclimating to life without Haliburton in the offense, and a back-to-back may actually benefit them in this scenario. In the other two games this season that Haliburton missed, Hield combined for 14 R+A in each game. 1U
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Mobley is showing life in his game to start January, which is exactly what he needed after many doubters beginning to voice their opinion on the second year forward. Since the start of the year, he’s had two occasions with 6+ FTA and hit this line in 3/5 games. The biggest issue for Mobley is staying out of foul trouble early and limiting his aggressiveness offensively in the 2H. Mobley did not hit this mark against the Timberwolves in their first meeting this season, but Jarrett Allen was missing from that matchup. Allen will draw the attention of Rudy Gobert in the post, while Mobley can pick on Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels.
Since the start of the year, Mobley is also averaging a team high 15.4 potential rebounds per game, another sign of increasing engagement. Over the last 7 games, the Timberwolves are allowing the 2nd most PPG and RPG to opposing PFs. Why add the assists to this play? Cause he’s averaging 6 potential assists per game and the Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the league to defend the 3P shot. 1U
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Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Since being moved into the starting line up on December 11, Trent Jr has averaged 21.75PPG. He’s getting the Atlanta Hawks on a back-to-back has had success against the Hawks over the last two season. He notched a 21 point outing earlier this year and dropped 31 in Atlanta last season. The Hawks are 1-4 in b2b games this season, making them a susceptible candidate for Trent Jr. The Duke product has hit this line in 7 of the L9 games and the Hawks are allowing the 3rd most PPG to opposing SGs in the last 7. 1U
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