Best NFL Week 16 Christmas Day player prop bet picks & predictions: Tom Brady? Bah, humbug!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Photo of Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley

Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


Show Bio

NFL and NBA props specialist for Pickswise. For "Prop Holliday" Bobby Stanley media enquiries, please email

Christmas Day is typically reserved for NBA in my household, but we are blessed with 3 NFL games this year. It will be tough to pin down which one will be on my TV throughout the day, but at least 1 of the 3 matchups has playoff implications as the Packers travel down to Miami (-3.5) to play the Dolphins.  The Broncos (-3) going to LA to face the Rams looked great on paper in August, but sadly this will be a matchup of two underperforming teams. To close out the night, we have the Bucs (-7.5) looking to get right just before the playoffs, taking on a Cardinals team now led by Trace McSorley.

Tom Brady (TB) under 273.5 passing yards (-114)

Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Tom Brady has hit this number only once on the road all season and I can see a scenario where this game gets ugly fast. The Cardinals are 29th overall in Rush DVOA and if the run game is going, we can see a quiet second half from Brady & co. It’s difficult for me to see a scenario in which Brady is trading scores with Trace McSorley and in games that Brady has had fewer than 43 attempts he hasn’t cleared this line all season. 1U

Christian Watson (GB) over 52.5 receiving yards (-115)

Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Xavien Howard sadly isn’t the CB we were all expecting this season. He’s given up big games to Tee Higgins (7-124), Justin Jefferson (6-107) and Mike Williams (6-116). While I don’t consider Watson in that class, he has a similar skill set and build as those guys to match up with Howard. After becoming a consistent option in this offense in Week 10, Watson has not had fewer than 46 receiving yards or played fewer than 80% of snaps. He’s currently seeing 17% of the team’s air yards in a game that should become pass-heavy, as the Packers will be without AJ Dillon this week. 1U

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy