These are a couple of teams that are trending in completely different directions in the ACC. On one hand, Boston College is now bowl-eligible after picking up steam in conference play. Conversely, the Pittsburgh Panthers are 2-8 and just hit rock–bottom last week with a convincing loss at the hands of a Syracuse team that barely threw the football in that game. How will Thursday’s game play out between these sides? Let’s get into it.
Here is my Boston College vs Pittsburgh Same Game Parlay for Thursday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. Also, be sure to check out our full Boston College vs Pittsburgh predictions.
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Boston College victory certainly correlates with Christian Veilleux going under his passing yards and probably correlates with the over.
Boston College has secured bowl eligibility thanks to a 5-game winning streak from September 30 to November 3, including a pair of road victories at Army and at Georgia Tech. However, the Eagles crashed back to earth with a 48-22 loss against Virginia Tech last time out, a team fighting for bowl eligibility themselves. The Eagles won’t be facing a team quite as hungry this weekend, as Pittsburgh has long since been eliminated from bowl contention with 8 losses on the season, including defeats in each of its past 4 outings.
Boston College is a healthy 5-1 straight up over its past 6 games, while covering in 3 of the past 5 outings. That includes road wins and covers in each of the past 3 such instances. This is a confident offense that is averaging 27.3 points over those 3 road victories, too, while the defense has allowed just 19 points per game. The Panthers lost 28-13 at Yankee Stadium in a neutral-site game against Syracuse this past weekend, and have dropped 4 in a row, although 2 of those losses came against ranked teams in Florida State and Notre Dame. With that said, Pat Narduzzi’s team is still 1-8 over the last 9 games, and just 2-7 against the number. The fact Pittsburgh is favored is enough for any bettor to raise an eyebrow, but even with that in mind, let’s take advantage, and play the bowl-bound Eagles on the money line.
While neither of these offenses is particularly explosive in the passing game, these are a pair of defenses that leave a lot to be desired. The Eagles are 130th in points per quality possession allowed on defense and 116th in early-downs EPA, meaning that the Panthers should see success once they cross the Boston College 40-yard line.
The Pitt defense is typically stout under Narduzzi but things have been different this season, with Pittsburgh ranking 77th in points per quality possession allowed (College Football Data) and 74th in passing success rate. Boston College has an excellent run game (7th in EPA per rush per CFB-Graphs) and the Pitt defense is on the field so often in these games that I have to wonder if this defense will wear down and start allowing a ton of chunk plays in the second half. Let’s take the over at this low number.
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Simply put, the quarterback situation at Pittsburgh this season has been a disaster. Phil Jurkovec was so bad that he had to move away from the position midway through the campaign and the former Boston College quarterback was replaced by Christian Veilleux in early October. The former Penn State transfer hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since he landed the starting job, however, throwing for 200 or fewer yards in 3 of his 5 outings.
The Pitt quarterback has 6 interceptions during that span, as he’s been more than happy to give the ball to the opposing defense. Against a Boston College defense that is playing some of its best football of the season in recent weeks, I can’t see Veilleux having much success. If Pitt is going to be competitive, the Panthers should stick to the ground game and avoid mistakes with its young quarterback.
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