The Western Michigan Broncos and the Eastern Michigan Eagles will take the field for their final game held during a weekend, as midweek “Maction” is right around the corner. While this is not one of the marquee games of the weekend, it represents a fun in-state rivalry within the MAC that has been pretty one-sided in recent years.
If you are interested in watching this game, you can find it on ESPN+ at 1:00 ET Saturday afternoon. Now, let’s break down the Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan Same Game Parlay
Eastern Michigan has the better defense in this matchup overall, but the Eagles have been especially good in first halves at home. Against FBS opponents, they allow just 4.3 points per first half, which is top 6 nationally around the likes of Michigan, Utah and Oregon State. Because of their stout defensive performances early in games, the Eagles have yet to go into halftime at home trailing and I expect that trend to continue in this game. For what it’s worth, Western Michigan is averaging nearly 10 less points per first half on the road than it is at home.
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It is odd that Eastern Michigan is an underdog in this matchup. While the Eagles struggle offensively, their defense is the best unit of the 4 in this game. The Eagles have yielded less than 3.2 points per opposing scoring opportunity since Week 4 and carry top 50 marks in defensive PPA, success rate and explosiveness allowed in that time. Eastern Michigan has also been very solid against the pass in non-garbage time situations, with top 20 marks in PPA per pass and pass success rate allowed since the end of September. Those traits should come in handy against the Broncos, who have thrown a pass on more than 56% of plays in their last 3 games. Interestingly enough, the Eagles have won 4 straight over the Broncos and were an underdog in each of those games. Maybe oddsmakers just struggle to line this matchup?
The Eagles move at a very slow pace offensively. In fact, they burn more than 28 seconds in between plays and rank 108th in seconds per play against FBS opponents. However, Western Michigan plays fast and is in the top 20 in seconds per play. This should lead to an uptick in the amount of plays Eastern Michigan runs. With extra possessions, the Eagles should be able to put together multiple scoring drives against a defense that is 86th in defensive PPA and 101st in points per opportunity allowed since Week 4.
Furthermore, the Broncos are outside the top 75 in standard downs PPA allowed and outside the top 50 in rush PPA allowed since the end of September, so they may struggle to limit Eastern’s running back duo in Samson Evans and Jaylon Jackson – who have accumulated nearly 1,000 total yards and 7 combined touchdowns. For what it’s worth, the Eagles have cleared this total in 4 of their last 5 games against the Broncos despite most of those previous teams ranking outside the top 75 in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency.
