Caleb Wilfinger
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The long wait is over! After an eventful offseason that featured plenty of moves that shook up the sport, the MLB regular season is finally here. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action on the diamond this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
I ended last season on a 42-23 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays and picked up a couple of wins to start this season, so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for today’s games on the diamond.
Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets: YRFI (+102)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
This game immediately caught me eye as these are a pair of pitchers that I’m looking to fade in the early portion of the 2024 season. Therefore, I’ll happily take the plus money price that we’re getting on the YRFI in this matchup. On one side, we don’t have a real idea what we’re going to get from Sean Manea at this point, as he is trying to pitch himself back into a starting role after spending most of the 2023 campaign working in the San Francisco bullpen in a long reliever role. In fact, I actually think we’re getting a bit of value in the market on this YRFI number given that his last outing in spring training was so successful. However, this is still a pitcher who didn’t take the mound as a starter last season and ended the 2022 campaign poorly, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Manea found his form later this spring after his first couple of starts this month.
The Mets pitching situation introduces a ton of variance into this game, but Tigers starter Reese Olson has been just as susceptible to getting roughed up in his short time in Detroit. The second-year starter had an up-and-down campaign in 2023, but his underlying metrics were pretty concerning (4.73 xERA, .410 xWOBACON, exit velocity in the bottom 8% of all pitchers). Both of these lineups are also due for some positive regression after slow starts to open the season, so I’m looking for the bats to wake up early against a pair of unproven arms. Let’s look for an early run in New York at this plus money price.
Read our full Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets predictions
