One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose.
There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like for Tuesday’s slate, so let’s get right into it.
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I’m surprised to see this total so low considering the starting pitchers. Mitch White has been horrendous with the Blue Jays since being acquired at the trade deadline, but he’s been at his worst in the first inning. He has allowed a first inning run in 4 of his last 5 outings and has raised his first inning ERA to 5.50. In the second half of the season, White is allowing opponents to hit .298, and in just September opponents are hitting .308 against him. The Orioles may not be heading to the playoffs, but they can certainly hop on White early and often.
Mike Baumann has appeared in 12 games for the Orioles this season and has yet to have a solid outing. In 29.0 innings he has allowed 15 runs and 34 hits with 8 walks. His xBA has increased to .273, and against a powerful Toronto top of the order I don’t see him getting out of the first inning without at least a run allowed. The bottom line is both pitchers are more than capable of allowing a first inning run, and since both lineups have talent at the top of their order, this YRFI has value. I expect at least a run in the first inning in Baltimore — I just don’t know which team will be doing the scoring.
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It has been an incredible season for Zac Gallen, who has cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. He has also been one of the best NRFI pitchers to back this season, as he has pitched a scoreless first inning in 17 of his last 19 starts. In his last 3 starts he has faced the Astros, Dodgers and Padres and did not allow a first-inning run. Compared to those offenses, the Milwaukee top of the order is very weak. Gallen faced this Brewers lineup at the beginning of September and threw a scoreless first frame in that game, as well. In 30 starts opponents are hitting .157 with a .218 OBP in the first inning against Gallen.
Eric Lauer has been decent this season — but excellent in the first inning. Through 28 starts opponents are hitting .175 with a .299 slugging percentage in the first frame against Lauer. He has not allowed a first-inning run in 13 of his last 16 starts, and that includes against the Diamondbacks on September 2. Arizona does not have a strong top of the order and ranks 26th in first-inning runs this season. These teams rely on their pitching to win games, so with 2 strong starters and below-average lineups, the NRFI is the play.
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