Chris Rivers
NFL
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Few, if any, inter-division games have as much history as the Dallas Cowboys against the San Francisco 49ers, and on Sunday another chapter in this storied rivalry will be penned. While this matchup is no longer certain to decide the outcome of the Super Bowl as their NFC Championship battles in the early 1990s did, the winner of this one will be feeling good about their chances of going to the dance.
The 49ers, who needed a dramatic Week 18 win over the Rams to secure a wildcard spot with a 10-7 record, will travel to the NFC East winners Dallas. The Cowboys whacked the Eagles in Week 18 to finish the regular season 12-5 and enter this one as marginal 3-point favorites.
Jared Smith has taken a look at the spread and points line and his full preview of the San Francisco 49ers vs the Dallas Cowboys can be found here. I’ll be concentrating on the same game parlay sides of things and have put together a trio of selections at +653 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Over 23.5 San Francisco 49ers points (-122)
Deebo Samuel over 28.5 rushing yards (-118)
Amari Cooper anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
Parlay odds: +653
Over 23.5 San Francisco 49ers points (-122)
No one wants to face the 49ers in the playoffs, not even a Dallas team with a defense that ranks second in total defense DVOA, giving up less than 22 ppg game on average this season. Since Week 10, San Francisco has been on a roll with the offense finding its feet, thanks in large part to Deebo Samuel (more on him later). The 49ers averaged over 26 ppg in their final nine regular-season games and their unique collection of weapons gives them a chance to unlock this Dallas defense.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will divide opinion for as long as he’s in the NFL but there can be no debating that he was clutch in the second half of the Week 18 win over the Rams. That Jimmy G gives this Niners team a chance to beat anyone, as does a strong running game that will be going up against a defense that’s below average at defending the run.
Perhaps most important for this offense is that they are healthy, which you haven’t been able to say about the Niners in recent years. They have their top two receivers, Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, firing, a good stable of running backs led by Elijah Mitchell, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and then there’s the freak that is tight end George Kittle. This Dallas defense is good, led by rookie sensation Micah Parsons and interception machine Trevon Diggs, but their numbers have been slightly inflated by playing some average offenses. When they have faced better attacks, they’ve been found out on occasions, giving up 25 points to the Cardinals, 29 points to the Patriots and 31 points to the Bucs, meaning there’s no reason to doubt the 49ers can beat their points line.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
Deebo Samuel over 28.5 rushing yards (-118)
Let’s talk about arguably the most exciting offensive talent in the NFL this year — Deebo Samuel. The Niners’ playmaker is third in total yards from scrimmage this year, registering 1,770 yards, and set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns in the regular season for a wide receiver with 8. It’s his rushing skills we want to concentrate on, Samuel having exceeded his rushing prop line in 4 of his last 8 games.
Kyle Shanahan loves to use Samuel to run the ball and has lined him up in the backfield for at least 10 snaps in multiple games this year. You can see why with Samuel averaging 6.2 yards per attempt and he should prove a thorn in Dallas’ side if used right. Attacking the Cowboys on the ground has to be the game plan for the 49ers with Dallas allowing over 112 yards per game on average, while a second-string Eagles team ran for 149 yards in Week 18.
Amari Cooper anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
If you hadn’t got the hint by now, we like the Niners to do well in this Wild Card game. But we are very aware it’s unlikely to be one-way traffic given the quality Dallas possesses and one area they can expose San Francisco is in the secondary. The Niners are weak at corner and gave up 314 passing yards to the Rams in Week 18. Of Dallas’ receiving core, there’s slightly more value in backing Amari Cooper over CeeDee Lamb to get in the endzone, while the metrics also push us towards the former Raider.
Over the last 3 weeks of the regular season, Dak Prescott reestablished a link with Cooper, who finished each of Dallas’ final 3 matchups with the highest number of targets. Cooper turned those targets into 15 catches for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns. That takes Cooper’s TD tally on the year to 8, two more than Lamb, who has also proven less reliable than Cooper when targeted in the red zone this year.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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