Thankfully, the Denver Broncos will have a quarterback—three, actually—on their active roster for Sunday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s not to say that this game will necessarily be competitive, but it will at least be worth watching. Heck, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are really must-see television regardless of the opponent.
Sunday night’s festivities will worth watching to an even greater extent if you spice things up with a same-game parlay. Let’s take a look at the best such option for this matchup, and be sure to check out our full preview of the game for picks on the side and total.
The value of same-game parlays, of course, is that all of their components can be correlated if you so choose. That’s part the plan for this particularly play, as we feel good about Kansas City winning…and winning big. Mahomes finding the endzone would obviously help the Chiefs’ effort, as would a productive night for running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. However, we’re not quite sure if Sammy Watkins will be a part of the fun. But Kansas City can still dominate even if Watkins is held in check.
We are teasing the spread up three points here, as the Chiefs are more than capable of covering two touchdowns and a field goal. Drew Lock is back for the Denver, but it’s not like this is some kind of juggernaut offense even with its QB1 under center. The Broncos did next to nothing during a 43-16 Week 7 loss to Kansas City and in two head-to-head matchups last year they scored a grand total of nine points. This team has lost a ridiculous 10 games in a row against AFC West rivals. The Chiefs (10-1) have won six straight and their 27-24 defeat of Tampa Bay last weekend was nowhere near as competitive as the score suggested.
Kansas City is a pass-first offense to be sure, but there are reasons to think the ground game will do more damage than usual on Sunday. The Broncos’ defense is seventh in the NFL against the pass (210.1 ypg allowed) and fourth in yards per pass attempt (6.7). Against the run, though, it is 27th in the league (121.3 ypg allowed) and 20th in yards per rush (4.5). Edwards-Helaire has gotten 25 carries over the past two contests, marking a steep step up in workload from the previous three outings.
As the above numbers indicated, Denver is far stingier against the pass than it is against the run. That is bad news for Watkins, who already hasn’t been especially proficient even against less imposing defenses. The veteran out of Clemson has amassed 43, 24, and 38 yards in his three most recent appearances (he played in Week 13 for the first time in more than a month because of injury) and he has not reached the 100-yard mark on any occasion in 2020. Watkins has made more than four catches in a game only once since the season opener.
Mahomes has scored only two touchdowns on the ground this year, so obviously this is a bit of a longshot. But, hey, that’s why you can get it at +230 and that’s why the payout of this parlay is driven up to +1806. And it’s by no means beyond the realm of possibility. Mahomes found the endzone with his legs in four of the last eight games during the 2019 campaign—including in both the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. If Denver clamps down against the pass, the 2018 NFL MVP will be more than happy to tuck it and run.
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