NFL Week 11 same game parlay (+747): Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb
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Ricky Dimon

NFL· 1 week ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

The Green Bay Packers will try to maintain their current status as the top seeds in the NFC when they visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. As for Minnesota, it is only one game out of a playoff spot despite being under .500 at 4-5. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Packers vs Vikings, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.

Packers -6.5 alternate spread (+200)

AJ Dillon over 80.5 rushing yards (-114)

Dalvin Cook to score a touchdown (-155)

Parlay odds: +747

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as AJ Dillon racking up his fair share of rushing yards would obviously work well with a Green Bay win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with tipping Dalvin Cook to score a touchdown. But even if Cook does, you still have to feel good about the Packers’ chances. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

Packers -6.5 alternate spread (+200)

Green Bay improved to 8-2 with last week’s win over Seattle that saw Aaron Rodgers return from a one-week Covid-19 hiatus, but it was defense that ruled the day. In fact, the Packers posted a shutout of Russell Wilson and company. They have surrendered a grand total of 58 points over their past 5 outings, an average of 11.6 points per game. Running back Aaron Jones (knee) is out, but with Rodgers back, Dillon more than capable of filling in, and the defense in fine form, Jones’ absence can be overcome. Minnesota’s last 3 wins have come by a combined 9 points, so its 4-5 record is every bit as unspectacular as it looks. On defense, Bashaud Breeland is questionable for Sunday.

AJ Dillon over 80.5 rushing yards (-114)

The Vikings are in the top half of the NFL in passing defense and they are tied for the league lead in sacks at 29. Even with Rodgers under center, the Packers would still be wise to focus on the ground game. After Jones went down last week, Dillon got 21 carries and turned them into 66 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Boston College product should get even more touches and he will likely capitalize on those opportunities against a mediocre run defense.

Dalvin Cook to score a touchdown (-155)

Over his past 6 games, Cook has at least 94 yards on 4 occasions, including yardage outputs of 110, 131, and 140. Obviously we care more about his TD-scoring abilities this week, and those are also favorable. Green Bay is third in the NFL against the pass while ranking in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. Minnesota will likely have to do its damage on the ground, which Cook has been known to do in this particular rivalry matchup. In 2 games against the Packers last year, the former Florida State standout amassed 213 rushing yards and a ridiculous 6 total touchdowns.

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