Ricky Dimon
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The New York Jets are winless heading into their home date with the Tennessee Titans in Week 4. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Titans-Jets, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Tennessee Titans -13.5 alternate spread (+230)
Derrick Henry Over 120.5 rushing yards (-113)
Zach Wilson Over 227.5 passing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +841
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Derrick Henry churning out a whole bunch of yards on the ground would obviously work well with a Tennessee win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with taking the over on New York quarterback Zach Wilson to throw for at least 228 yards. But even if Wilson does that, there is no reason why the Titans can’t dominate from start to finish. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Tennessee Titans -13.5 alternate spread (+230)
Our computer-model power rankings have the Jets at third-to-last in the NFL ahead of only Detroit and Jacksonville, but even that is being somewhat generous. You can easily make an argument that they are the worst team in the league. New York has scored a laughable 20 points through 3 games; no other team has posted fewer than 48. Wilson is not getting any help, but he has been terrible in his own right (2 TDs and 7 INTs while getting sacked 15 times). No running back on the roster is averaging more than 30 yards per game and as a team the Jets are averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry. Tennessee, on the other hand, is the biggest division favorite in the entire NFL at -500. Sure, that has a lot more to do with the rest of the terrible AFC South than it does with the Titans, but they are a respectable 2-1 so far. Tennessee’s defense just held Indianapolis to 265 total yards and now it faces an even worse New York offense.
Derrick Henry Over 120.5 rushing yards (-113)
Unsurprisingly, Henry leads the NFL in carries by a country mile among players who have played in 3 games this year (Joe Mixon has suited up for 4, as his Bengals beat the Jaguars on Thursday night). Henry has toted the rock 80 times, including 63 in the last 2 weeks alone. Headlining his 2021 season so far is a 35-carry, 182-yard, 3-touchdown performance during Tennessee’s Week 2 overtime victory at Seattle. The Jets’ run defense is actually pretty solid, but that won’t matter when the opposition is this good and will get so many opportunities.
Zach Wilson Over 227.5 passing yards (-113)
I’m loving the combination of a Titans blowout win with these two prop plays. If Tennessee leads from start to finish, the recipe for maintaining that advantage will be to run, run, and run some more. In turn, the Jets will have to pass as they attempt to mount a comeback while also keeping as much time on the clock as possible. That means Wilson will be passing a ton. He’ll probably get picked off a couple of times, too, but the opportunity for big yards will be there. As bad as the No. 2 overall pick has been (2 TDs, 7 INTs), he threw for 258 yards against Carolina in Week 1 and has attempted at least 33 passes in all 3 of his starts. The Titans are surrendering 259.3 passing yards per contest and have made only 1 interception.
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