It’s Thursday Night Football and the Denver Broncos are nowhere in sight – how perfect. For this primetime matchup, the Saints are traveling to take on the Cardinals as both teams look to improve on a rough start to the season. But fortunately for the Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins is back. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, so let’s get right into our Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Saints +2.5 (-115)
Under 43.5 (-110)
DeAndre Hopkins anytime TD (+125)
Parlay odds: +1175
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, having a pick that may “go against” another pick increases the output. That is the plan here, as DeAndre Hopkins scoring a touchdown would technically go against the Saints spread pick and the under. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.
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New Orleans Saints +2.5 over Arizona Cardinals (-115)
Even though they failed to cover, the Saints had a lot of injuries and had a strong chance to defeat the Bengals. Despite ranking second in the NFL in terms of net success rate, the Saints are still undervalued in the market. The good news is that Chris Olave will at least be returning this Thursday. Despite having few weapons, Andy Dalton has looked solid this season, ranking 9th in success rate and 14th in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks. The Cardinals are the third-heaviest blitzing team in the NFL, and guess which QB has the highest PFF grade among QBs versus the blitz? Andy Dalton, indeed. When facing a rush, he has never made a play that warranted a turnover, so this is not an anomaly.
There is nothing functional about this Arizona offense. They are tied for lowest in yards per play and dead last in offensive scores per drive compared to expectations. And now that Hollywood Brown is out for several weeks, they are lacking their lone significant danger. With over half of the Cardinals’ total air yards available, Hollywood ranks third in the NFL. Only 8 receptions totaling 20+ air yards or more have been made by Cardinals receivers this season, and Brown has five of them.
Under Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 0-4 straight up and ATS on a short week. This includes three of the four times the Cardinals were favored, all three of their home games occurred while they were favored, and they all ended in a straight-up loss.
Be sure to check out our full New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Under 43.5 points (-110)
Especially on Thursday nights, the under during primetime games has been on a tear. About 64% of first-half TNF games have also gone under, even if you filter for totals of 46 or fewer. We may be in for another low-scoring matchup after the terrible Colts/Broncos and Commanders/Bears games.
Although DeAndre Hopkins is returning and Robbie Anderson has recently joined the club, it might take some time for both of them to fit in. Due to the likelihood that Alvin Kamara will carry the ball frequently for the Saints, expect the clock to continue to run and possessions to be restricted. In a game when points should be scarce, don’t anticipate much aerial action. We are inclined to go under.
Check out our Saints vs Cardinals touchdown scorer best bets!
DeAndre Hopkins anytime TD (+125)
Hopkins is eligible to play for the Cardinals in Week 7 against the Saints after serving his six-game ban. So, at a crucial time for Arizona’s offense, the superstar wide receiver will finally return to the Cardinals. They have lost three of their last four games and only scored nine points against the Seahawks last week, but the inclusion of Hopkins should help halt the decline. Hopkins had 42 receptions last season, and eight of which were for touchdowns, so with Hollywood Brown out, Hopkins could play an important part for Arizona much quicker than some expect.
Check out Prop Holliday’s 2 TNF player prop bets
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