Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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I get excited when I see Chiefs vs Chargers in primetime. I feel like it has been a staple over the last 3 years, and they rarely disappoint. In the 5 games Justin Herbert has played against Kansas City, he is 2-3 straight up, but 0-2 at home. The lowest-scoring game between Herbert and Patrick Mahomes has been 43 points and that was their first meeting.
Sunday night’s game is set at 51.5 with the Chargers being 5.5-point underdogs at home. The Chiefs will be without Juju Smith-Schuster, while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both game time decisions for the Chargers. If you partake in Same Game Parlays that favor overs, this is the one you load up on. We have two high-flying offenses with weapons at every position group and two of the best QBs in the league in primetime. It should be a fun one.
Be sure to check out our full Chiefs vs Chargers predictions.
Jerick McKinnon over 25.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The flashy play this week is going to be Kadarius Toney. Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are expected to miss time and bettors are running to the window to grab Toney at any price the book designates because his ceiling is so high. I’m going to play wait and see on Toney in only his third game as a Chief. Instead, I’m going with a guy who has quietly had the best 2 receiving weeks of the season Weeks 9 and 10. Jerick McKinnon has 8 targets and 6 receptions in each of the last 2 games. The Chargers rank 28th in DVOA against running backs, allowing 6 targets and 29.7 yards per game to opposing RBs. The total is set at 51.5, so we should expect another high-octane performance from these AFC West rivals. I believe that Smith-Schuster’s targets will not all directly funnel to Toney but be spread out among the receiving group. Clyde Edwards-Helaire played a season-low 4 snaps last week. Obviously, this can change from week to week, but clearly Andy Reid is seeing something he doesn’t like and my suspicion is pass protection. McKinnon has graded positively over the past 2 weeks in pass protection, and he’s being rewarded with the snaps. 0.5U from me.
Skyy Moore longest reception over 11.5 yards (-119)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is another situation where I’m just not following the crowd on Toney. Rookie Skyy Moore has been replaced by Toney as the Chiefs’ punt returner, but that has no bearing on this line in the receiving game. The rookie has more knowledge of the playbook at this point in time and has an aDOT of 12.3 for the season. He’s had long receptions of 30, 16 and 24 in his brief exposure this season, but I’m expecting that snap count to rise on Sunday night. Moore has lined up exclusively on the right side of the field this season and the Chargers are 26th overall in DVOA to deep-right targets and 26th overall in targets on the right side of the field in general. Moore is the sleeper play for this game and could find the end zone as well. This line is simply too low for me not to pounce. 1U.
Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-156)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I hate giving out any plays with this type of juice, but the -156 is the best number by a wide margin (-190 or worse on others). The Chiefs are allowing an average of 2 passing TDs per game (worst in the league) and at the very least, Herbert should get back one of Mike Williams or Keenan Allen, potentially both. He has hit this mark with ease in the last 4 games against the Chiefs. In this situation, the juice is worth the squeeze. 2U.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Mike Williams +155
Gerald Everett +430
Skyy Moore +440
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