NFL Week 11 begins with the Tennessee Titans visiting the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Get our NFL picks and NFL predictions for EVERY Week 11 matchup!
Clevta’s Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers best bet: Under 42 (-110)
These are already two of the slowest teams in the NFL, with the Titans being the slowest-paced team and the Packers 28th. The Titans are the #1 most run-heavy team in the league as well and against a bottom-5 run defense, will want to pound it even more. The Packers showed against Dallas what kind of team they want to be now. They want to run it a ton and mix in a play-action shot from time to time. They ran the ball 39 times against Dallas compared to just 20 pass attempts. In fact, while the Titans rank 32nd in pass rate versus expected, the Packers sit 26th since Week 7. So we have two slow, run-heavy offenses facing each other. And they will do so on a short week in extremely cold weather at Lambeau Field.
Be sure to check out our full Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers predictions
The early forecast has this game being played in 25-degree weather that will feel like 10 degrees. As of today, there is only a chance of snow, but there is over 50% chance of snow both Thursday and Friday so snow could pop up during the game. The wind is the factor that does actually matter and while it’s not terrible, we are looking at 15 mph sustained winds with gusts into the mid-20s. Not exactly conditions where you’d expect a ton of explosive throws from a couple of teams that want to run it a lot anyway.
The Titans’ defense continues to exceed expectations and they have not allowed more than 22 points in a single game outside of the Buffalo debacle in Week 2. In fact, they’ve allowed 20 or fewer in 6 straight games, including an impressive 20-point performance in KC. They have kept 7 straight opponents under their team total for that week. Since 2019, 8 of the 10 Titans games with a total line at 42 or less have stayed under. Those games have stayed under by nearly 8 points per game. I think this line could hit 40 by the time kickoff arrives and will gladly grab the under now.
Lock in our Titans vs Packers Same Game Parlay at +550 odds
NFL Week 11 Promo Codes
- FanDuel Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $125 in Free Bets — PICKSWISE EXCLUSIVE
- BetMGM Promo Code: Bet $10 Win $200 if either NFL Team scores a TD
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins
- Caesars Promo Code: Up To $1,250 Back On Your First Bet + 1000 Tier Credits + 1000 Reward Credits®
- PointsBet Promo Code: Get 4x $200 Second-Chance Bets For The NFL
Find all the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes and Bonuses for NFL Week 11, including sportsbooks live in your state.
Get Prop Holliday’s Titans vs Packers best player props — he’s on a 9-3 run in primetime!
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
