Derrick Henry (22) runs against New England Patriots strong safety Duron Harmon (21)

© Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to our NFL best bets section where we outline our top NFL plays each week. If you want our plays for all other NFL games then head over to our NFL picks homepage. We have free picks for every game on the slate and a weekly parlay.

Pickswise NFL Playoff Record: 5-3

Pickswise NFL Best Bets Record: 39-38-2

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Championship game here as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans. After falling behind big early on Kansas City dominated in the final three quarters against the Texans, and I think they keep that momentum rolling into this one. Tennessee was able to beat Baltimore because they got out to an early lead which neutralized the Ravens’ running attack, but they won’t be so lucky here. Even if they once again strike first, the Chiefs have a potent enough passing game to make up any deficit in a hurry. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league, and he showed it this past week. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t done anything, throwing for fewer than 90 yards in each of his two playoff starts. Tennessee has been getting by on the strength of their defense, but that isn’t going to cut it here. The Titans have a very exploitable secondary, and Mahomes is going to torch it. Kansas City is going to win this one, and it isn’t going to be close. Pick: Chiefs -7.5

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

It is going to be extremely hard for the Packers to score on Sunday and that is obviously a concern for any Over bet. Green Bay barely scored over seven points in the first matchup and Vegas currently has the Packers team total at 17.5 for Sunday. At best, I can see the Packers scoring 17 points in this game. San Francisco’s pass rush is near perfect – remember they sacked Rodgers five times in the 1st meeting. The NFL’s second-ranked defense is about to showcase why they deserved to be ranked first in the NFL with another excellent performance. The Under is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last 4 playoff games and 5-1 in their last six games in January. Defensive ends Dee Ford and Nick Bosa are going to cause mayhem for this Packers offense as the 49ers shut down Rodgers. On the other side, expect San Fran to run the ball at least 30+ times. Give me the Under. Pick: Under 45.0 Total Points