Like any season-long futures bet, the NFL MVP race typically starts taking shape in November, so making any wagers now requires an impossible amount of foresight. Ensuring you use a smaller unit size when making such wagers is crucial here, aka do not overinvest. In any case, the 2026 NFL product is one that invites more offense. Although the league average is 22.5 team points per game (ppg) over the past 5 seasons, the top-10 scoring teams of the last 5 years all averaged over 29 points:
2024 Lions — 564 pts (33.2 ppg)
2021 Cowboys — 530 pts (31.2 ppg)
2024 Bills — 525 pts (30.9 ppg)
2025 Rams — 518 pts (30.5 ppg)
2024 Ravens — 518 pts (30.5 ppg)
2021 Buccaneers — 511 pts (30.1 ppg)
2023 Cowboys — 509 pts (29.9 ppg)
2024 Buccaneers — 502 pts (29.5 ppg)
2023 Dolphins — 496 pts (29.2 ppg)
2022 Chiefs — 496 pts (29.2 ppg)
It’s on offenses like these where the NFL usually crowns an MVP, and it’s almost always a quarterback. Another quintessential example of that was last season, where Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46).
Be cautious always. At the same time, if you are venturing into the MVP market, make sure you feel bullish about that player’s weapons, opponents, etc. – everything that plays into a high-octane offense. Let's break down the latest NFL odds for the 2026 MVP.
Find out our expert NFL futures picks for EVERY MAJOR MARKET, including Super Bowl winner, MVP, every player award and every division winner!
2026 NFL MVP odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at time of publishing.
- Josh Allen +550: There is real potential here. Allen and Joe Brady seem to have a tight bond, but this price is too short for an August wager. Wait until he flops in Week 2 or 3, and then pull the trigger when this deflates.
- Lamar Jackson +750: These odds are far too short for a quarterback that ranked 23rd in passing yards and 18th in passing touchdowns. Baltimore is also a run-centric operation, and they just hired a defensive-minded coach.
- Joe Burrow +850: The only issue here is that Burrow may have less pressure and therefore less production with a more talented defense on his side. Then again, we put Burrow’s surrounding talent among the best in the NFL.
- Justin Herbert +1000: To me, this is a joke – Herbert produced last year (9th in total passing yards) but they’re in an extremely defensive, competitive division, and the consistency just isn’t there.
- Drake Maye +1000: The “Super Bowl loser” hangover is enough to scare me away. Plus, are we sure A.J. Brown wasn’t the problem in Philadelphia?
- Matthew Stafford +1100
- Patrick Mahomes +1100: Patty has a lot to prove after 2 mediocre seasons, and Travis Kelce looks big-yikes in camp.
- Dak Prescott +1200
- Caleb Williams +1400: Caleb has a year under his belt in the Ben Johnson scheme, and that’s a good thing for the Bears. Last season also felt magical, where luck and variance went their way more often than not (1st in turnover margin last season). Caleb will likely win one of these if it all comes together, but probably not this year.
- Jordan Love +2000: I’m not sure if I understand this team’s direction, nor do I think the Jordan Love experience has another level to it.
- Brock Purdy +2000
- Jayden Daniels +2000: I am a believer in Jayden Daniels, and he actually has the surrounding talent to do some damage this year (hello, UMD grad, Stefon Diggs). Let’s see if he can stay healthy.
- Trevor Lawrence +2000: Lawrence is too hipster of a choice for me, the kind of MVP future pick that pontificating dorks like to analyze on long-form podcasts before the season, even though everyone knows it has no chance. No thank you.
- Sam Darnold +2800
- Jalen Hurts +2800: He’s in the back-half of quarterback odds for good reason; we have serious doubts that the Eagles’ offense is any good without a downhill run game. And every defense knows that now.
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NFL MVP Award Trends
Entering this season, 13 straight quarterbacks have won this award. The last non-QB to win was Adrian Peterson (2012).
Since 2013, 9 of the 13 winners led the league’s highest-scoring offense, and 11 of the 13 winners led a top-3 scoring offense (the only exceptions were in 2021: Aaron Rodgers/Packers -10th, and 2023: Lamar Jackson/Ravens -4th).
Of the 69 MVPs handed out, 70% have gone to quarterbacks.
Only 2 defensive players (and just one kicker, Mark Moseley in 1982) have won the award.
Since 2011, only one MVP, Adrian Peterson on the 2012 Vikings, was on a team that didn’t win at least 11 games. Winning is a prerequisite to earning the award.
Unsurprisingly (look at their era-defining quarterback history), Green Bay (9.5) and Indianapolis (8.5) have produced the most MVP winners all-time.
Don't miss our expert NFL picks for EVERY GAME throughout the 2026 season, after our experts delivered +82.1 units of profit last year!
2026 NFL MVP best bet: Dak Prescott (+1200)
Apparently, Dak Prescott is calling his offense GOTI, aka “the greatest offense there is.” We know, that's awfully corny, and it doesn't exactly inspire an investment. The Cowboys have also been slightly above average, as far as winning, with the former Mississippi State thrower under center (83-55-1 overall, 60%). “America's Team” can put up as many points as it wants, but without a big number in the W column, there is a slim chance that Prescott has a shot at this award.
Still, there is no denying how great of a season he had in 2025. He was 3rd overall in passing yards (4,552) and 4th in passing touchdowns (30). His newfound connection, George Pickett, was a phenomenal complement to CeeDee Lamb. Pickens often outshined the Cowboys’ #1 wideout, gaining 352 more receiving yards last season (1,429). Both eclipsed 1,000. Dallas’ offensive line also proved formidable in 2025, ranking 6th in opponent sack rate. Along with a surprisingly productive year from Javonte Williams (1,201 rushing yards), Prescott has exceptional talent and learned chemistry surrounding him.
The Cowboys’ 2026 schedule ranks in the “hard” category according to most analysts. We think that’s a little inflated. The Eagles have the only top-shelf defense in the NFC East, and there are plenty of other matchups that present subpar defenses: Ravens, Bucs, Cardinals, Colts, Titans and Jaguars. That means more opportunities where Dak can inflate his numbers.
For however corny Prescott and his GOTI talk may be, he had one hell of an opening performance in 2025, with a new coach and with many new parts. If that’s any indication of where this offense can go, Prescott has a real shot to do something special this season.
You can get our NFL predictions for every regular season and playoff game, along with Super Bowl 61, throughout the entire 2026 season
2026 NFL MVP longshot pick: Kyler Murray (+5000)
Let's just look at the facts. Kevin O'Connell has every motivation to prove that he can develop a star quarterback. While his former quarterback Sam Darnold was busy winning a Super Bowl, his team played quarterback roulette in 2025; and it didn’t end well. O’Connell knows that the NFL is a hire-happy and fire-happy league, and one more bad season could mean a true step back in his career.
The same can be said for Kyler Murray. The esteemed former Oklahoma quarterback flashed right away when he entered the NFL, an athlete with surreal arm talent and lightning-quick jukes. Injuries, disparate coaching, poor surrounding talent, and what seemed like a true lack of desire on his part, created a wannabe video game character that never came to be in Arizona. The fact remains that Kyler possesses every natural gift a quarterback could want, and now he has phenomenal talent around him.
With a quarterback of any merit (miss you, Kirk), Justin Jefferson is among 4 names mentioned as the best wideout in the NFL. Murray also has Aaron Jones Sr., Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal. We could make an argument that Minnesota owns a top-5 offensive roster, so there are no excuses for Kyler there. Minnesota’s quarterback dilemma was their issue last season, not the talent. Oh, and Kyler gets to play in a dome on top of it– ideal for his happy feet.
The Lions and Bears’ defenses are not impenetrable. They were both sub-average last season. The Packers’ defense could be a top unit again but they’re rarely consistent (14th in yards allowed last season). The Vikings’ 2026 schedule is average – some tough spots, and they’re in a tough division, but they face plenty of poor defenses outside of the NFC North, too (Bucs, Dolphins, Colts, Falcons, Panthers and Jets). For my money, Kyler is in a damn good spot to make some noise this season, and he has a coach who wants it just as badly for him.
NFL futures predictions 2026
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