Against the Spread Pick
Thursday Night Football here as the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North clash. The Steelers have won four games in a row, but when you dig in the winning streak isn’t all that impressive. One of those games was against a Chargers team in free-fall, one was against the Dolphins in a game where they trailed by 14 points, one was against the Colts in a game where Jacoby Brissett was injured early on, and most recently they beat a sharply declining Rams team. In each of their past two wins, they required numerous fluke plays and defensive touchdowns to win. That isn’t sustainable, and I think we see them fall off here. The offense hasn’t done anything, and Mason Rudolph has looked pretty bad despite the win streak. The Browns finally picked up a win this past week, beating the Bills at home. I don’t trust Rudolph on the road in primetime, and it looks like Cleveland could build some momentum now that they’ve got the monkey off their back.
Over Under Pick
The under also makes a lot of sense in this spot. Pittsburgh has been winning games because of their defense, and nothing else. Their pass-rush led by T.J. Watt has been phenomenal, and it should have success again here against this weak Browns offensive line. Cleveland also has a strong pass-rush, and their defense has been solid all year long. This past week, they completely shut down Buffalo and Josh Allen. On a short week against a division rival, neither team is going to have too much creativity schemed up here. There were only 29 points scored in Pittsburgh’s most recent game, and 14 of those came on defensive scores.