Against the Spread Pick
The Houston Texans will host the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football. The Colts already beat Houston earlier in the year, and for a few reasons I think they’ll be able to do so again here. A lot of people hopped off the Indianapolis bandwagon after they lost the Dolphins two weeks ago, but that clearly wasn’t representative of who they are as a team. They were playing without Jacoby Brissett, and as soon as they got him back they got right back on track. Indy dominated the Jaguars this past week, and with Brissett back under center they put up 33 points. The Colts also have a clear coaching advantage here, as I’d trust Frank Reich with only a few days of prep all day long over Bill O’Brien. The Texans’ offensive line is still a mess, as evidenced by the six sacks Deshaun Watson took this past week. Houston put up a measly seven points against Baltimore this past week, and now they’re facing a tough Colts defense. Marlon Mack will miss this one with a broken hand, but it shouldn’t matter too much. The Colts still have Jonathan Williams who rushed for 113 yards on only 13 carries last week, and Nyheim Hines to catch passes out of the backfield. Indy will win this one outright.
Over Under Pick
I also lean toward the over in this spot. The Colts are a completely different team with Brissett taking the snaps, and I expect them to dominate against a barely-there Texans secondary. Houston gave up 41 points to the Ravens this past week, and let Lamar Jackson do whatever he wanted the entire game. The defense was atrocious in every aspect, also giving up 263 yards on the ground. The Colts are going to be able to score here no matter what, and I think the Texans will do enough to send this one over. Watson is coming off one of his worst games as a pro, and he should bounce back in this one. He isn’t going to have two terrible games in a row no matter who he is playing.