Super Bowl Predictions 2026

Player Receiving Yards Pick

H. Henry (NE) - Over 36.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

There is no denying that Seattle’s pass defense is also stout, but it can be attacked from the tight-end position. The Seahawks surrendered the fifth-most receptions to opposing tight ends (105) and the sixth-most yards in the regular season. I expect that trend to continue, especially with CB Devon Witherspoon likely to put the clamps down on Patriots WR1 Stefon Diggs. That will put the pressure on Henry to step up, and he definitely can. Henry racked up 64 yards and a touchdown in the wild-card round against the Chargers before bad weather prevented anyone on offense from doing much against the Texans and Broncos. The Arkansas product surpassed this 36.5 number 10 times during the regular season, including in 5 of the last 7 games. During that stretch, he gained fewer than 35 yards only once.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

SEA Seahawks D/ST to score a TD(+380)

Reasoning

The Los Angeles Rams had zero problems scoring points in the NFC Championship game versus the lethal Seahawks defense. However, that didn’t stop the Seattle special teams unit from cashing in and scoring a touchdown on the opening kickoff. Rashid Shaheed is a threat to take any kickoff for a touchdown, as is the Seahawks ball-hawking secondary, thanks to an elite pass rush that has registered four turnovers in two games this postseason.

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First Touchdown Scorer Pick

R. Shaheed (SEA) to score the first TD(+2000)

Reasoning

Speaking of explosive, Rashid Shaheed is capable of taking any kickoff, punt, catch, or carry to the house. He was one of the biggest trade deadline acquisitions for a Seahawks team that desperately needed another wide receiver other than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who could be a real threat on the outside. That explosion was on full display in the NFC Championship game. He took the opening kick for a touchdown, while reeling in a 51-yard pass, and getting a carry in the backfield. Expect Seattle to get their shiny new toy going early on Super Bowl Sunday.

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Player Passing Yards Pick

D. Maye (NE) - Over 220.5 pass yds(-110)

Reasoning

Maye has faced three defensive juggernauts in this year’s postseason, and if the Patriots capture Super Bowl LX, he’ll have faced four of the top-10 scoring and total defenses from the regular season, which would be quite the feat. Although the 23-year-old hasn’t played his best through three postseason games, I actually expect him to ball out against this Seattle secondary. First off, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t had to face many elite QBs this season other than Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Since their Week 8 bye, they’ve faced a hobbled Jayden Daniels, three backup QBs, Cam Ward, Philip Rivers, Bryce Young, Brock Purdy and Stafford.

The only QBs they’ve faced this season ranked in the top-10 for passing yards are Stafford, Trevor Lawrence (Week 6) and Baker Mayfield (Week 5). Those three quarterbacks averaged 307.2 passing yards in 5 games, and Stafford torched this secondary for 457 and 365 yards in their last 2 meetings. Drake Maye was a top-4 QB in total passing yards this season and cleared this line in 14 of the Pats’ 17 regular-season contests. He also threw for 268 yards against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, and although he failed to surpass 180 yards against the Texans and Broncos, both of those games were in adverse weather conditions, and New England relied on their run game to advance.

I know some fans have questions about Maye in the postseason, but I expect the sophomore QB to come up big against Seattle and will gladly back him to exceed his passing prop.

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Player Receptions Pick

K. Walker III (SEA) - Over 2.5 recs(-122)

Reasoning

Most importantly, Walker is alone in Seattle’s backfield for all intents and purposes now that Zach Charbonnet is sidelined (Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in the divisional round against San Francisco). As such, Walker’s volume of work is getting heavier and heavier. He got 22 touches (3 receptions) against the 49ers and 23 touches (4 receptions) against the Rams in the NFC Championship. The Michigan State product has made at least 3 catches in 3 consecutive contests dating back to the regular season – also in 4 of the last 5 and in 7 of the last 10. The Seahawks are now going up against a Patriots defense that yielded the fifth-most receptions (84) to opposing running backs in the regular season.

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Player Interceptions Pick

S. Darnold (SEA) - Under 0.5 INTs(+110)

Reasoning

I’m not sure why there would have been any lingering doubts about Darnold even prior to the NFC Championship. If there were, they are gone now. In the biggest game of his career, Darnold played one of his best – completing 25 of 36 attempts for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. The former USC standout is INT-free through 2 playoff games and has not been picked off since Week 17. Further, Darnold has not thrown an interception in 6 of his last 10 games. The former #3 overall pick threw 14 INTs in the regular season, but those came in bunches (4 against the Rams on November 16, for example). Now, however, they aren’t coming at all. Yes, New England’s defense is good — but it’s a unit that grabbed only 10 picks while surrendering 25 TDs through the air in the regular season. At plus money, this prop has great value.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

K. Walker (SEA) - Over 23.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

The Seahawks’ backfield now belongs entirely to Walker after Zach Charbonnet went down with a torn ACL in the divisional round against the 49ers. Walker promptly delivered 111 yards from scrimmage and 1 touchdown in Seattle’s NFC Championship victory over Los Angeles. Four of his 23 touches were receptions, which he turned into 49 yards. The Michigan State product has exceeded this 23.5 number in 3 consecutive contests and in 4 of the last 5. In his last 3 regular-season games, Walker had receiving performances of 64 and 36 yards – and that was when he was still splitting time with Charbonnet. The Seahawks now face a Patriots defense that yielded 84 receptions to opposing RBs in the regular season (5th-most in the NFL). New England head coach Mike Vrabel will likely channel his inner Bill Belichick and attempt to take away Seattle’s best player, who is WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He can do that with double-teams while putting CB Christian Gonzalez on WR2 Cooper Kupp, or Vrabel can let Gonzalez try to contain JSN by himself with some safety help. Either way, the Pats’ pass defense won’t be focused on KW3.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

M. Hollins (NE) to score a TD(+450)

Reasoning

Mack Hollins, along with Stefon Diggs, brings veteran experience to a team led by a 23-year-old MVP candidate and one of the youngest rosters in the league. He was a vital part of the Patriots AFC Championship win, as he reeled in both targets for 51 yards and played the 2nd most snaps in the wide receiver room — one behind Kayshon Boutte, who was blanketed for just one catch. In a likely negative game script, look for Drake Maye to target Hollins more than we saw in the Denver blizzard.

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First Touchdown Scorer Pick

T. Henderson (NE) to score the first TD(+3000)

Reasoning

Let’s start with a bomb. TreVeyon Henderson saw just four snaps in the AFC Championship, while Rhamondre Stevenson dominated the backfield with 25 rushing attempts. The rookie continues to be underutilized after a solid rookie campaign that featured nine rushing touchdowns, including four of over 50 yards – The most by any player in Patriots history. He’s the biggest threat in the Patriots offense that features aging veterans at the receiver and tight end positions. If the Patriots look to involve both backs on their opening drive, Henderson is a play at 30/1 to be the first touchdown scorer.

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Player Passing Touchdowns Pick

S. Darnold (SEA) - Over 1.5 pass TDs(-108)

Reasoning

New England’s defense did not have a good interception-to-touchdown ratio during the regular season. To go along with its modest 10 picks, it allowed 25 scores through the air. By comparison, the Patriots surrendered only 11 TDs on the ground. A red-hot Darnold should be able to take advantage of this matchup. His recent form extends well beyond just the 31-27 NFC Championship victory over the Rams. The former #3 overall pick has now thrown multiple touchdown passes 9 times throughout this 2025 campaign. It’s worth noting that Zach Charbonnet is sidelined by a torn ACL and he is – or was – more of a red-zone threat than fellow running back Kenneth Walker III. When the Seahawks approach paydirt this weekend, count on Darnold and star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba going to work.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

J. Smith-Njigba (SEA) - Under 94.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

My favorite Jaxon Smith-Njigba player prop for Super Bowl LX is for the star wide receiver to go under his receiving yards total. I know, I know, betting an Under isn’t always fun when it comes to NFL games, but I expect Patriots Head Coach Mike Vrabel to center his inner Bill Belichick by taking away the opposing team’s best player in big games. To be fair, the Pats have done a fairly good job at taking away opposing teams’ top WRs, as they’ve allowed just 60.3 receiving yards per game in their 20 contests this NFL season. During the postseason, Ladd McConkey went for 32, Jayden Higgins recorded 59 receiving yards, and Courtland Sutton mustered just 17 yards in the AFC Championship.

Now, JSN is a step above those wide receivers, but opposing wideouts have only cleared 95 receiving yards against the Patriots in 5 of their 20 games. 2 of those games came in Weeks 1 and 2 when Christian Gonzalez was on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, so opposing WRs have only cleared this line in 17% of Patriots games this season when Gonzo is on the field. The last time an opposing receiver cleared this line against New England was in Week 10, so they’ve gone 10 straight games without allowing 95+ yards to an opposing wideout. The Patriots defense has allowed just 138.3 passing yards per game this postseason and 193.5 yards per game during the regular season (9th in the NFL). This won’t be an easy matchup for Sam Darnold, and I expect JSN will be bottled up in a big way, which is why I’m betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-110).

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

K. Walker (SEA) - Over 19.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

This quota is simply too low, and it’s one I expect Walker to surpass comfortably on Sunday. Even when Charbonnet was sharing time, Walker was still exceeding this number more often that not. KW3 has amassed at least 29 receiving yards in 3 straight games and in 4 of the last 5. In 2 of his last 3 regular-season appearances, he went for 64 and 36 yards through the air. Walker is coming off an NFC Championship performance in which he delivered 111 total yards from scrimmage, including 49 on his 4 catches. This play obviously correlates nicely with the over on his catches, so let’s be bullish on Walker’s all-aroud receiving performance in Super Bowl 60.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Player Receiving Yards

J. Smith-Njigba (SEA) - Under 94.5 rec yds

Player Receptions

J. Smith-Njigba (SEA) - Over 5.5 recs

Player 2nd Quarter Receiving Yards

J. Smith Njigba (SEA) - Over 23.5 2Q pts

Reasoning

Although I expect the Patriots to keep JSN in check for most of the game, there are a few other player props that are worth targeting. Therefore, I’ve put together a Same Game Parlay featuring JSN props, and you can cash in on this SGP at +585 odds. The first leg is my best bet listed above, and I can’t see JSN clearing 95 total receiving yards against this Pats secondary. However, I do think there is value in targeting his total receptions. I expect the Seahawks will make things easy for Sam Darnold early, which could lead to short receptions for Seattle’s top wideout. Additionally, the First Team All-Pro has at least 6 receptions in 14 of Seattle’s 19 games this season. He failed to clear this line against the 49ers in the Divisional Round but has at least 6 catches in 6 of Seattle’s last 7 games.

The final leg of my JSN Same Game Parlay brings some juice because it’s not correlated to the first two picks, and that’s for JSN to go over his receiving yards total in the second quarter. Although I expect the Pats to contain him for most of the game, I can’t see a world where JSN doesn’t have at least one big catch. His Over/Under for his longest reception is 27.5, so he’s capable of clearing this line in one catch. Additionally, the second quarter has been where JSN has thrived this season. He’s targeted the most in the second quarter this season with 52 targets and 37 receptions, and the next highest quarter is the fourth, where he has 37 targets and 28 receptions. If there’s any quarter where JSN can get his, it’s the second. Therefore, I’m betting these three picks on Sunday.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer

D. Maye (NE) to score a TD

Player Rushing Attempts

D. Maye (NE) - Over 6.5 rush atts

Player Interceptions

D. Maye (NE) - Over 0.5 INTs

Reasoning

When it comes to Drake Maye player props, there are a few other markets I love, which I’ve combined for a Same Game Parlay at 10-1 odds. The first leg is for Maye to find the endzone at least once against Seattle. The sophomore QB scored against the Broncos in the AFC Championship, and Seattle allowed rushing touchdowns to three mobile QBs this season in Jayden Daniels, Cam Ward and Bryce Young. The second leg of my SGP is for Maye to record 7 or more rushing attempts. The Patriots QB has already shown how dangerous he can be with his legs this season, and he had 10 rushing attempts against the Chargers AND Broncos this postseason.

The final leg of my SGP is for Maye to throw 1+ interceptions. Although I expect him to have a big game in terms of passing yards and with his legs, it’s hard not to see him making a mistake in this game. He’s thrown a pick in 2 of the Pats’ 3 playoff games during this run, and he was picked off in 8 of New England’s 17 regular-season contests. Additionally, Seattle recorded 18 interceptions during the regular season (5th in the NFL) and picked off Brock Purdy in the Divisional Round.

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Alternate Game Totals

Over 49.5

Player Rushing+Receiving Yards

K. Walker (SEA) - 125+ rush+rec yds

Player Passing Touchdowns

S. Darnold (SEA) - Over 1.5 pass TDs

Player Passing Touchdowns

D. Maye (NE) - Over 1.5 pass TDs

Reasoning

Over 49.5 alternate spread (+138)

There is no denying that these 2 defenses are stout, but I’m rolling with offense in Super Bowl 60. These offenses are no slouches, either. The Seahawks averaged 28.4 points per game during the regular season; the Patriots were even better at 28.8. Darnold has been effective all season long and was especially impressive throughout a 31-27 victory over the Rams this past weekend. Maye is in the MVP discussion.

Both quarterbacks are complemented by reliable pass-catchers (in some cases superstars) and solid running games. Seattle has scored 41 and 31 points in its 2 playoff outings. New England hasn’t been close to that level, but it hasn’t been required to do so. When forced to keep with such a dynamic Seahawks attack, the Pats will have to get out of conservative mode and dial up some electricity on offense. Don’t be shocked by an entertaining, back-and-forth battle for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LX.

Kenneth Walker III to record 125+ rushing+receiving yards (+168)

Seattle’s backfield was cut in half in the Divisional Round against the 49ers, when Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL. Unsurprisingly, Walker was up to the task in the NFC Championship as the Seahawks’ lone running back. The Michigan State product delivered 111 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches and also scored 1 touchdown. That was preceded by a 116-yard, 3-touchdown rushing performance against the 49ers. The Patriots’ run defense is good but nothing special, plus they allowed the 5th-most catches to opposing running backs (85) in the regular season. New England cornerback Christian Gonzalez should be able to at least somewhat contain Seattle WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Walker could be in line for plenty of catches and receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-114)

Although Walker is more than capable of shouldering the load, Charbonnet’s absence could really be felt in the red zone. Charbonnet scored 12 touchdowns during the regular season compared to Walker’s 5. Well, those TDs have to go somewhere – especially if this game is going to exceed 49.5 points. Count on Darnold picking up the slack, just as he did with an NFC Championship performance that won’t soon be forgotten in Seattle. The USC product tossed 3 scoring strikes and went for 346 yards, marking the 9th time this season he has thrown for multiple touchdowns. Although the Patriots’ defense is solid, they surrendered 25 passing TDs during the regular season compared to only 11 on the ground.

Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)

As mentioned above, the expected game script does not call for conservative football being played by New England’s offense. Look for head coach Mike Vrabel to let it rip with Maye. And why not? This is a bona fide NFL MVP candidate we are talking about (will likely finish 2nd in the voting behind Matthew Stafford). Maye hasn’t done much with his arm in these playoffs (although he did throw 3 TDs against Houston), but that’s because the weather conditions and the matchups didn’t call for it. The story will likely be much different against Seattle in (hopefully) sunny California. If asked to do a lot, Maye can certainly deliver. The former UNC standout finished the regular season with a 31-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and he tossed 8 TD passes in the final 3 games alone.

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