Best expert NFL player prop bets for Week 3's early 1pm games: David Montgomery runs over the Texans

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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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After a rough Week 1, I bounced back in a big way Week 2. My Sunday card went for +4.55 units including anytime TD scorers. This week’s lines appear to be very sharp, so I’m proceeding with caution and only picking spots I feel very comfortable with. Be sure to make note of the unit size I associate with each play as I never go over 2U, but I am 3-1 on all 2U plays.  I do not have any 2U plays in the 1pm slate, but feel great about the 3 plays below. Make sure you’re following me on IG and Twitter @PropHolliday!

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David Montgomery over 84.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The Texans are ranked dead last in rush defense according to PFF, and Montgomery can hit this in rushing alone; the receiving yards are an added bonus. Montgomery is the backbone of a putrid Chicago offense, but a backbone, nonetheless. His snap count jumped from 66% to 80% from Week 1 to 2, and he’s had at least 2 receptions in both games this season. Montgomery averaged 8.1 YPC last week and is due for another 15-carry, 2-reception game at minimum. I’d play this up to 87.5 and I’m on it for 1.5U.

Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears predictions

Jared Goff over 1.5 passing TDs (-110)

Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Goff is starting to remind people of the QB that led the Rams to the Super Bowl back in 2018. He’s tossed 6 TDs and 1 INT through 2 games. The Vikings are coming off a short week, and this is shaping up to be a shootout with the total set at 52.5. The Vikings rank 22nd in coverage, and we’ve seen Goff have success against this team in the past. Last year, Goff had 3 TDs in his Week 13 victory against the Vikings. I expect the Lions’ offensive line to continue to be one of the best in the league and that allows Goff to be at his best. At nearly even-money, I’m on this for 1U.

Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings predictions

Tyler Boyd over 34.5 receiving yards (-120)

Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Boyd has been quiet so far this season, but the Jets are an opponent that has been very generous to slot receivers. It’s the perfect breakout game for Boyd. Last week, Amari Cooper caught 3 of his 3 targets in the slot for 43 yards. The week prior, Mark Andrews operated primarily out of the slot and caught 5 passes for 52 yards. Boyd sees 89% of his targets in the slot, and last season against the Jets had 8 targets 5 receptions 69 yards 1 TD. I’m on this for 1U. Play up to 36.5.

Josh Allen Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Line available at Fanduel sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Allen has been off to a hot start, throwing for 297 and 317 yards through two weeks. This week, Allen travels to Miami in what everyone is expecting to be a shootout. This number is exceptionally low compared to other books (282+) and the Dolphins are one of the worst coverage teams in the league according to PFF. Gabe Davis is expected to return, and I can’t see anyone slowing down Allen & Co. He’s hit this number in a blowout vs Ten and a closer matchup that wasn’t really close in LA. If Tua can put points on the board, we could have fireworks in Miami. I’m on this for 2U if you can get it at the 276.5. Scale back to 1U for anything over ~280 yards.

Derek Carr Over 23.5 Completions (-114)

The Titans will be without their best edge rusher, Bud Dupree, on Sunday. This should make life a lot easier for Derek Carr who’s hit this in 1/2 games this year. The one he missed (vs LAC), Carr through for 22 against one of the better pass rushes in the league. To add value to this play, the Titans are ranked bottom 8 in coverage according to PFF. I expect that number to be lower next week as losing Bud Dupree will make life harder on the secondary, requiring them to hold coverage for longer against the likes of Davante Adams and Darren Waller. Daniel Jones put up an 81% completion % in Week 1 vs Tennessee and Josh Allen finished at 68%. Both numbers are higher than anything Carr has done all season. Give me this for 0.5U

Be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets predictions

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