Best NFL player prop for TNF New York Giants vs Washington Football Team: Thomas to slay Giants

Logan Thomas
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL· 1 day ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Sportsbooks did not waste much time putting out player props for Week 2. No sooner than the final whistle in Week 1 did we have something to bet on for Thursday Night Football. With all of the variables in the Giants vs the Football Team’s matchup, it’s best to pounce on value early. Before I get to my pick of the game, make sure you check out our expert picks for the game sides and totals.

Week 2 is all about figuring out where players over or underperformed in Week 1. For me, there is one player whose line is a bit deflated after his Week 1 yardage.

Logan Thomas (WFT) over 44.5 receiving yards (-114)

Line available at time of publishing. Playable up to over 46.5 yards.

On a team full of breakout performers last season, the rise of Thomas might have been least expected. The converted college quarterback set career highs across the board with 72 catches for 670 yards in 2020. Including the playoffs, Thomas finished the season on a high note, notching at least 60 yards in 6 of his last 11 games. In a poor Week 1 gamescript versus the Chargers, the big tight end secured all 3 of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. I fully expect Thomas to break out in Week 2.

The quarterback

A mid-game injury in week 1 forced the Football Team into making what seems like their 85th quarterback change over the last 2 seasons. Enter backup Taylor Heinicke, who drew some strong praise when he was thrust into action towards the end of last season. In the parts of three games he’s played in for Washington, Heinicke has developed a very nice rapport with his tight end. Thomas has a 27% yard share and 23% target share on throws from Heinicke. His yards per target (8.4) is by far the highest with his new signal-caller, as compared to the other quarterbacks who have taken snaps for Washington.

And yes, I acknowledge that we’re talking about a very small sample size here. With Thomas’ performance being only one piece of the puzzle, his matchup should be quite exploitable.

The matchup

Last we saw the Giants, they were shredded by Broncos tight ends for 81 yards on 10 catches. It’s a microcosm of last season for the G-Men, who allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to the position. The Giants strength defensively remain their boundary cornerbacks, as well as their run defense (which allowed 3.5 ypc before a garbage-time 70 yard scamper last week).  The focus will be stopping receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Antonio Gibson.

The Giants’ coverage over the middle of the field is suspect, and that’s where I expect Thomas to do most of his damage. Heinicke and Thomas showed a connection up the seam in their time on the field together.

The projection

Just as important as the player and the matchup is the line. In this case, we have a very achievable 44.5. With Heinicke’s passing yards implied between 230-240, depending on the book, we conservatively looking for a 20% yard share from Thomas. I have the Virginia Tech alum projected at 7 targets in this game, which should translate to over 50 yards.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Giants vs Washington Football Team

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
DraftKings

$200

Bet $1 On Any NFL Football Game & Get $200 In Free Bets Instantly!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $1 on any Pro Football game

Instantly get $200 in free bets

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 if the Chiefs or Ravens win!

Make a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Bet $5 on either the Chiefs or Ravens to win their Week 2 matchup

If your team wins, you win $150 cash!

New players only. Max bet $5. Must be 21+ to play. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet + a free NFL Jersey!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $5,000 + a free NFL Jersey

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.