Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Dolphins embrace the cold

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) drops back to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at SoFi Stadium.

The NFL returns to Saturday night as the Miami Dolphins face off against the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, New York. The AFC East has been one of the better divisions in football this season, and these two teams are a big reason for that. Miami is coming off a tough loss in Sunday Night Football of Week 14 while Buffalo took down the Jets in the cold temperates at home. This divisional showdown holds extra importance with the playoffs just around the corner, so let’s dive right in!

Be sure not to miss any of our NFL picks for Week 15 — we went 11-2 on sides in Week 14!

NFL Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills expert predictions

The forecast for Buffalo on Saturday night calls for snow, wind and freezing conditions. Essentially, classic winter weather in Buffalo! There are 1-3 inches of snow expected during game time which should only make this matchup even more interesting. Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a horrendous start against the Chargers while Josh Allen continues to lead the Bills to wins. Our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills spread, odds & betting lines

Odds courtesy of BetMGM at time of publishing.

Point Spread: Dolphins +7, Bills -7
Total Points Over/Under: 44 points
Money Line Odds: Dolphins +265, Bills -320

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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills expert picks

We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Dolphins and Bills.

Dolphins vs Bills point spread pick: Dolphins +7 (-110)

The Bills will look to avenge their loss to Miami earlier in the season with the weather in their favor this time. Buffalo’s only home loss this year was that freak upset by the Vikings, while Miami is just 3-4 SU on the road at 2-5 ATS. The Bills’ offense has been very good at home this year, averaging over 27 points per game. The weather elements feel like they could give Buffalo a decided advantage. Miami will have to figure out a way to run the ball to keep Josh Allen and company off the field, especially with the weather at play.

Miami has lost two in a row and only scored 17 points in each. The Bills can also clinch a playoff spot with a win and get one step closer to an AFC East title. This is a tough number at 7.5, especially since the Bills are 6-6-1 ATS on the season and 2-5 ATS over their last seven. It’s a tough buy point on Buffalo at this number even though they’ve won 8 of the last 10 straight up against Miami.

Be sure to check out our full Dolphins vs Bills predictions

Dolphins vs Bills Over/Under totals pick: Under 44 (-110)

Despite the Bills’ high-scoring offense and scoring, they are just 3-10 to the over on the season. The same can be said about the Dolphins. They are just 6-7 to the over on the year. At a total of 42, this is the lowest total for both of these teams this season. The weather has played a factor in that number and wind and snow are expected in the forecast. In the first meeting, Buffalo had a lot of success on the ground and held the ball for over 40 minutes. Miami has the 3rd worst rushing attack on the road this season and could be a one-dimensional team on Sunday.

Ultimately, how much Miami can score will determine if this total goes over. The Bills offense was contained the last two weeks against elite defenses, but the Dolphins don’t have one. Still, the weather being the ultimate equalizer, it could also affect the kicking game for both teams. That’s enough for me to take the under.

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