I am 25-23 with my picks in this column so far, including 7-6 when it comes to Major League Baseball. So let’s try to extend the winning record with some successful MLB plays on Tuesday.
Today I like a first 5 innings bet in addition to both an over and an under. Now let’s get into explaining the reasoning behind those these plays.
Chicago may have started to turn a corner, itself. After losing 10 straight, where they averaged 2.5 runs per game, the White Sox have won 5 of 8 and averaged more than 6 runs per game. They will face Jordan Lyles, who has earned every bit of his 6.69 ERA. He has given up at least 4 runs in 6 consecutive starts and allowed at least 2 home runs in 5 of his last 6. Chicago’s bullpen is plenty bad, so I don’t want them to get involved here. White Sox -.5 run in the first 5 innings.
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The Angels and Astros play the second game of their series in Anaheim as Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for Los Angeles against Framber Valdez of Houston. The Angels have won the game the last 6 starts that Ohtani has made, while allowing opposing hitters to hit just .095 against him. All 5 of his earned runs allowed at home came in one start against Oakland. Ohtani also has a 0.89 WHIP on the season. The Astros are 16th in MLB in runs scored per game, so I expect a very solid performance from Ohtani against the Astros’ lineup.
Valdez has gotten through 6.0 innings in his last 6 starts and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this year. The southpaw is also receiving some of the worst run support of any pitcher this season, as Houston is scoring just 3.29 runs in his 7 starts. Both of these bullpens are top 10 in ERA, top 12 in WHIP and the Angels’ bullpen has allowed the fewest home runs of any team this year with just 6. I know unders are dangerous with extra innings, but I don’t like the 3.5 runs in the first five innings — so let’s go under 8 for the game.
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The top 2 teams in the AL East meet in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Rays. The Orioles send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound. He hasn’t been good by any stretch, and somehow the O’s have won 5 of his 6 starts. Rodriguez has a 5.46 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. What’s worse about those numbers are his last 5 starts are against some of the worst teams in the league in the Athletics, the White Sox, the Tigers twice and the Royals. The Rays score the second-most runs per game in baseball, they score the most runs per game on the road and have hit the most home runs in MLB.
Tampa Bay is countering with Zach Eflin, who has faced three of those same 4 opponents as Rodriguez but owns a 2.25 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. The Orioles are 6th overall in MLB in runs scored per game. Eflin has much worse numbers against righties and Baltimore is a predominantly right-handed lineup. I expect both teams to be able to score runs, especially in a hitters park like Camden Yards. We are getting a favorable number at 8, which keeps a push as an option. Let’s go over 8 runs.
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