MLB Thursday parlay at mega (+952 odds) today 5/25: Runs expected in D.C.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell (4) walks to the dugout during the middle of the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park.
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email
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Even though we have a lighter slate of Major League Baseball games taking place on Thursday, there’s still plenty of value on the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +952 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Thursday.

Padres vs Nationals Over 9.5 (-105)

Rays -1.5 (+145)

White Sox -1.5 (+108)

MLB parlay odds: +952

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San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-105)

To start off our mega parlay, we’re going with the over in the Padres vs Nationals matchup. The biggest factor that I see contributing to this total is that this matchup should not feature strong starting pitching. The Padres are significant favorites despite Blake Snell’s xERA of 5.94 and xSLG and barrel percentage numbers that put him in the bottom 15 percentile of all qualified pitchers in both metrics. Snell isn’t missing many bats in 2023 and the same can be said for Nationals starter Jake Irvin. The right-hander has struggled mightily this season, including poor efforts in each of his last 2 starts. His 6.87 xERA and .395 xWOBA don’t inspire much confidence and I suspect that the recent strong performance from the Padres lineup will carry over into this matchup.

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Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+145) over Toronto Blue Jays

For the second leg of this parlay, I’m going with the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line. Part of why the Blue Jays were supposed to take the next step this season was its seemingly improved starting pitching, but Alek Manoah has not pitched like an ace in 2023. Manoah’s 5.15 ERA, 6.54 xERA and .387 xWOBA put him in the bottom 7 percentile of all qualified starters in those metrics, alongside some of the lesser pitchers in the game. Manoah was shelled in his only previous start against the Rays — allowing 7 runs in 4.2 IP — and I expect a similar result in this one. On the other side, Rays starter Zach Eflin brings in an xERA of 2.93 and one of the best walk rates in baseball, so don’t expect Eflin to beat himself as Tampa Bay cruises to a victory at home.

You can also check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI Best Bets for Thursday — we’re on a 33-13 run!

Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+120) over Detroit Tigers

To close out our mega parlay, we’re going with the White Sox on the run line. It’s been an eventful season for Lucas Giolito on the mound, but his last 4 starts have been more of what we’re accustomed to from the White Sox ace. Giolito has allowed 8 earned runs over his last 25 innings pitched, which has subsequently brought his ERA down from 4.15 to a more respectable 3.62 on the season. Now he’ll take on a Tigers lineup that continues to be one of the lesser offenses in the American League, which presents a good opportunity for Giolito to keep up this recent momentum. On the other side, Alex Faedo’s 4.60 ERA and poor whiff rate isn’t all that impressive and even though this Chicago lineup has struggled with consistency, the White Sox should do just enough to secure a victory by 2+ runs.

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