NFL DFS Picks - Week 12 Daily Fantasy Advice
The NFL is in full swing, and that means daily fantasy football is as well. Each and every week this season we’ll be bringing you the best plays, including some guys who are flying under the radar that might be low-owned with tournament winning potential. We’ll also be letting you know about a couple of popular players you should avoid at all costs.
Without further ado here are our Week 12 picks, using pricing from DraftKings and FanDuel.
QB – Matt Ryan – DraftKings $5900, FanDuel $7600
Ryan is being slept on, and there’s no way he should be the 14th-most expensive quarterback on this DraftKings main slate with only 12 games. He had a down game this past week due to playing the Saints’ elite defense, but right before that he had at least 19 points in four straight contests. Now this weekend he’s got a much easier matchup against a leaky Raiders defense that just gave up five touchdowns to the Chiefs last week.
Starting running back Todd Gurley is also out for this one, which means the Falcons will probably be passing more than usual. It’s unclear if Julio Jones will be able to play here, but even if he sits I think Ryan will be just fine. The Raiders are terrible at getting pressure on quarterbacks, which is the only time Ryan struggles.
RB – Nick Chubb – DraftKings $7100, FanDuel $8400
Of course Atlanta’s Brian Hill makes a lot of sense this week with Gurley hurt, but in terms of less obvious plays I like Nick Chubb. His workload and production puts him at truly elite status, yet he isn’t being priced like it. He’s been very consistent, with at least 108 rushing yards in four of his past five games. Now he’s playing as a touchdown favorite, so the game-script should be very favorable to him.
He’s also getting to face a lifeless Jaguars defense that is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. Jacksonville is going to be trotting Mike Glennon out at quarterback, and if this point spread is accurate then it means Chubb will be getting a ton of carries in the second half as the Browns look to chew clock.
WR – Justin Jefferson – DraftKings $6300, FanDuel $7000
Ridley makes a lot of sense as a stack with Ryan, especially if Jones doesn’t play, but I also think Jefferson is a great option. Particularly so in GPP tournaments, as Jefferson’s upside and ceiling are sky-high here. The rookie’s production has been off the charts, the only issue has been the inconsistent volume. Now that he gets to play without Adam Thielen for the first time, you don’t have to worry about his volume.
The Panthers have a very young secondary, and Jefferson is going to get loose for big gains at least a few times. He’s put up at least 86 yards in back to back games, and that was with Thielen there as the top option. I can’t wait to see what he looks like when he’s truly featured in this offense, and he has the potential for a tournament-winning monster day.
TE – Evan Engram – DraftKings $4500, FanDuel $5600
Engram didn’t do anything too notable last week, but in each of his three previous games he had at least nine targets and 11 PPR fantasy points. Now he gets to go up against a Bengals defense that has given up the second-most PPR points to tight ends this season. Cincinnati is in a state of complete disarray, and I think the defense is going to roll over and officially quit now that Joe Burrow is done for the year with a torn ACL.
Guys to avoid – Kyler Murray, Mike Davis, Michael Thomas
I’m avoiding each of these players this weekend. Murray is the most expensive quarterback on this slate, and there’s no way I could pay this much for him in this spot. He’s going on the road against the Patriots, and Bill Belichick is still great at scheming to stop dual-threat quarterbacks. Look what he did to Lamar Jackson a couple of weeks ago.
Davis is still overpriced, as even without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup he has declined sharply in his past few games. He’s only had more than 12.5 fantasy points once since Week 5, and this Vikings defense has quietly been improving recently. Additionally I’m staying away from Thomas here. This game has an extremely low total, Thomas has only had one good game this season, and the Saints should just be playing ball control and keep away considering the Broncos won’t even have a real quarterback out there.
Want more NFL advice all season long? Visit our ‘NFL picks‘ page for breakdowns and picks of every game each week.
What is NFL DFS
NFL DFS is an NFL Daily Fantasy Sports contest.
So what is a Daily Fantasy Sports contest you may ask?
The main difference between a Daily Fantasy Sports contest and a more traditional fantasy football contest, as the name suggests, is the length in time in which it is played over. NFL DFS contests are accelerated, fast-paced contests typically played over either a day or an NFL game week, rather than the season-long contests you may be accustomed to.
You’ll enter a contest, and draft a team, within a set budget, with each player’s price set depending on their week’s matchup and recent performances. Point scoring is fairly traditional with touchdowns, yards, and receptions to the fore.
How to Win DFS NFL
As with sports betting, there are many different strategies and ways that can improve your chances of winning. Here’s a couple of strategies to try out in your next NFL DFS contest and improve your chances of winning.
Most people will start their contest by picking a QB they like and build a team around the position. Chances are if he has a great game, one of his targets will do too. By picking two correlated players, for example, Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, you can score off both players on the same play if they hit for a big touchdown. Its a higher risk high reward option because it can go either way, but by correlating your picks, the chances are, if one hits, they’ll both hit.
Understand the Scoring Systems
It may sound obvious, but some contests will score differently. The most notable difference being PPR contests – Points Per Reception – In this instance, you’ll want to look player target stats, with a player catching 10 passes for 100 yards being way more valuable than a player that catches two passes for the same yards.
In certain teams, schemes, and matchups this can add considerable value to a slot receiver, for example. Julian Edelman has been a prime example over the last decade, who, while he won’t always go off with 100+ yard games, he’ll always be picking up additional points per reception.
Pay attention to the weekly team and player news
Unfortunately, injuries are part of the NFL, and it’s important to keep tabs with the week’s team and player news, particularly if a big name is lost to injury. The dollar values of players are very rarely updated after injuries so the next man up can we worth his weight in gold.
While it varies by position, the running back spot can be particularly fruitful in this instance and you can find yourself a bargain pick, freeing up space for those top players at other positions.
How to Analyze NFL week to week for DFS
Matchups are everything in NFL DFS contests and fortunately, there is a wealth of information available for you to use to find the best ones.
Team stats are always a great starting point. Some teams will defend the pass better than the run and vice versa, make the most of these to find players in matchups with plenty of upsides.
You also want to look at the team they play for, there’s little point picking up a receiver in a team that patently likes to run the ball more than they like to throw it.
Use the sportsbook lines to your advantage. The sportsbook lines have an incredible level of accuracy in predicting how a game will go and whether you’ll see a shootout or a low scoring game. While it’s no exact science, and yes, the sportsbooks can get it wrong, it’s a good way of gauging which games could see the most points and focusing on some players from that matchup.
How to Find Value in NFL DFS
Value in a DFS contest is quite simply how many points a player can get vs how many dollars he costs to draft. One great way of determining value is to utilize the various player stat projection tools out there, including our very own NFL computer picks, and compare it to the player’s draft price.
Our NFL computer picks use a wealth of statistical data to simulate scenarios and provide the best player and team projections that can be used for your NFL DFS contest and sports betting.
You can simply take players’ projected stat lines and divide it by his price to determine a projected DFS value.
For example, if a QB is projected 300 yards passing, 2 passing touchdowns, 20 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown this would equate to 31 DFS points. If the QB costs $10,000 you can divide his price by his projected points, in this case, $322 per point, and get a metric you can use to compare players to determine their value.
Also be sure to check out all of our NFL pages including our NFL picks, NFL predictions, NFL props, and NFL Best Bets where our expert handicappers outlay their best bets for this week’s games, all of which have pointers towards players and teams that can help you make top NFL DFS picks in your contests.