NFL Win Total Predictions 2026: Best Over/Under Bets

With the Patriots and Seahawks set for a Wednesday night kickoff on September 9, the 2026 NFL regular season is almost upon us. The marathon battle for the Lombardi Trophy will get underway before we know it, and our experts are building up to the new season with a ton of content in our NFL futures guide — which includes our Super Bowl winner picks, MVP best bets, player award predictions and much more.

For now, our extensive football coverage continues with our favorite win-total picks for the upcoming season. Which teams will exceed expectations and which ones will underwhelm? Let’s dive in to the NFL odds and our expert NFL picks in the regular-season wins market for the 2026 campaign.

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NFL Win Total best bet: Dallas Cowboys Over 8.5 wins (-150)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175.

The 2025 season was a frustrating one for Dallas, as the Cowboys failed to exceed their win total a season ago. Despite a pretty inconsistent campaign, it felt like this was a better team than what their final record (7-9-1) indicated. With that in mind, all we need is a slight step forward with Dak Prescott and company for Dallas to exceed its win total and find its way back into the NFC playoff picture. The offense has the chance to be the best in football, and it should have a very high floor thanks to Prescott, a solid offensive line and the dynamic wide receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Dallas was inside the top five across the league in EPA per play and weighted EPA per drive a season ago, only trailing the Rams, Bills, Patriots and Packers in that department. As long as they're able to stay healthy, this should be another successful season for the Cowboys offense. 

Defensively, this has been a maligned unit for the last couple of years, but we should see a significant improvement on that front this season thanks to a major overhaul of the personnel and coaching staff. Christian Parker was brought in to be the youngest defensive coordinator in Cowboys history, and he’ll be leading a defense that brought in Rashan Gary to beef up the pass rush, while rookie phenom Caleb Downs and safety Jalen Thompson are expected to be immediate contributors in the secondary.

The schedule features some difficult road trips, but as long as the Cowboys take care of business at home — where they have been excellent in recent years — they should be in a decent position to win 10+ games and make the postseason. 

Grab our expert's full NFC East preview, including a +105 best bet

NFL Win Total best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-130)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

One of my favorite win total positions this season comes from the AFC North, and it involves a Steelers team that is undergoing a massive philosophical change following the exit of Mike Tomlin after 19 seasons as the head coach in Pittsburgh. While his time with the organization had run its course, Tomlin's record in close games can't be ignored — with Pittsburgh winning 67% of its one-score games over the course of his tenure. It's hard to imagine any coach replicating that level of success in Pittsburgh, much less in the first year following Tomlin's departure. It doesn't help matters that the Steelers appear to be led by a quarterback who has more interest in his weekly TV appearances than anything to do with the team.

Aaron Rodgers probably should have retired after last season, and it's difficult to see his play improving in his age-42 season. Not only is Rodgers extremely limited when it comes to throwing the ball downfield, but he also struggled from a clean pocket a season ago. Add in the fact that the offensive line has some questions, and I don't love what Pittsburgh has at the skill positions, and you have a potential recipe for Mike McCarthy's first year to be a disaster.

On the other side of the ball, there are some intriguing names on a defense that could keep the Steelers in some games this season. However, this is the same unit that is coming off its worst season in the Tomlin era, and I'm unconvinced that new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is going to fix some of their glaring issues in his first year on the job. Don't be surprised if things bottom out in Pittsburgh this fall.

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NFL Win Total prediction: Washington Commanders Under 7.5 wins (+100)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

I'll give the Washington front office some credit for attempting to fix a few glaring areas of need in free agency, including at wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) and on the defensive line (Odafe Oweh), along with taking a few swings in last April’s draft class. There are also new coordinators on both sides of the ball, with David Blough getting promoted from within to be the new offensive coordinator, and Daronte Jones coming over from the Vikings to be the new defensive coordinator. There was some early hype for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders earlier in the offseason, but there are some glaring red flags with this team and recent developments have also soured me on Washington heading into the season. 

On paper, a massive amount of coaching turnover on both sides of the ball could end up being a good thing following a terrible season. However, I’m still not sold on Dan Quinn as a successful head coach at this level, and the coordinator hires were not all that impressive either. Furthermore, it has been anything but a smooth training camp for Washington. Between the recent off the field drama with Daniels and the Commanders suffering a couple of notable injuries — including star offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (expected to miss significant time) — the vibes around the team are already concerning.

The schedule starts with a bang as well, with Washington getting set to face the Eagles, Cowboys and defending-champion Seahawks to open the season. The Commanders also drew the Rams and 49ers from the NFC West, plus the Bengals, Texans and Jaguars from the AFC playoff hopefuls. I can't project Washington as a clear favorite in more than 5 games, so let's roll with the under at even money. 

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NFL Win Total pick: San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 wins (-140)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

At this point, we know to expect that every 49ers season will come down to if they're able to stay remotely healthy. It certainly hasn't been an encouraging training camp on that front, as San Francisco has already suffered a few key injuries this summer — most notably losing Ricky Pearsall for the season and dealing a blow to its wide receiving corps. I have all the confidence in the world in Kyle Shanahan as an elite floor-raiser and he should be able to keep this offense productive regardless of who misses time, but there are still major questions on the offensive line and the skill position group is mostly aging and/or returning from significant injuries. Ultimately, it's hard to project where the 49ers are going to be on offense this fall.

After an abysmal 2024 season, last year saw the 49ers defense manage to remain respectable under the watchful eye of Robert Saleh, despite being completely ravaged by injuries at nearly every position group. Now that Saleh is in Tennessee, it's reasonable to wonder if this defense will take a noticeable step back, especially given the injury histories of a number of important players in the two-deep. On one hand, Fred Warner is back in the fold at linebacker, the San Francisco secondary could be very good and the addition of Osa Odighizuwa gives the 49ers some much-needed athleticism up front. There is real potential for this defense, but it's simply too difficult to count on the 49ers to stay healthy -- and that makes them a candidate to be combustible this season. I'd play the under with confidence at this number.

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