MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, September 11, inc. Guardians vs Twins & Orioles vs Blue Jays

We have an interesting slate of MLB action on Friday, September 11, with all 30 teams in action, and there are 3 MLB best bets standing out to me on the betting board. Let's dive in and discuss my favorite plays, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for all 15 matchups today, including Pirates vs Cubs, Mets vs Yankees, Orioles vs Blue Jays, Astros vs Rays, Dodgers vs Marlins and Phillies vs Braves, as well as the Apple TV doubleheader featuring Reds vs Brewers and Padres vs Giants.

MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML over Minnesota Twins (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

The Minnesota Twins are in poor form offensively against left-handed pitching. In the last 30 days against that handedness of pitcher the Twins sit 26th in wOBA with an 83 wRC+. This is poor timing as they have Parker Messick next up on the schedule. Messick has pitched well in this matchup twice already this season, and his strong form has continued throughout the season for Cleveland. The southpaw hurler has elite batted ball metrics while also earning strikeouts and limiting walks. He finds success both in and out of the zone and his consistency has been crucial for keeping the Guardians afloat.

Taj Bradley is the scheduled starter for Minnesota on Friday. Bradley has stayed healthy this season, making 28 starts entering today. His production has been solid with an ERA under 4, but he has performed a bit worse of late. Bradley’s last outing resulted in two home runs and four total earned runs in five innings pitched. He also allowed four earned runs to the Athletics and five earned runs to the Phillies within his last five starts. Cleveland is not a powerful offense, but they are a low strikeout unit that should put the ball in play with consistency. I favor the Guardians at current pricing.

Check out the full analysis for our Guardians vs Twins prediction

MLB Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML over Baltimore Orioles (-125)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Max Scherzer struggled against the Rays on 8/19, allowing seven earned runs in just four innings of work. The veteran right-hander has pitched well in each of his other six starts since the start of August, however. This includes seven scoreless frames with 10 Ks two starts ago against the Mariners. Scherzer is not the pitcher he once was, but he is limiting hard contact and has shown improved command of the strike zone recently. He is set to face an Orioles lineup sitting 27th in wOBA with an 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.

Chris Bassitt is the scheduled starter for Baltimore in Friday’s matchup. Bassitt has had a frustrating season, dealing with injuries and poor play when he’s been healthy. The right-hander has issued seven walks with eight earned runs crossing the plate in his last two starts alone. His underlying metrics are better than his surface-level numbers but he draws a tough matchup against Toronto who is in good form against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days the Blue Jays sit 10th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+. I favor the Blue Jays at current pricing.

See our full Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction

MLB Best Bet: Cade Cavalli (WAS) over 17.5 outs recorded in Angels vs Nationals (-139)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds.

Cade Cavalli has been a steady producer for the Washington Nationals in 2026, providing the starting rotation with a mainstay and a consistent arm. Cavalli enters Friday with a 3.12 ERA through his first 30 starts made. His 158.2 innings of work are the result of working six or more innings on 17 different occasions. This includes 10 of his last 11 starts made. We get a 17.5 outs line with playable juice towards the over on Friday in a matchup he should dominate.

Cavalli’s 3.71 xERA supports his ERA and ranks as a 65th percentile mark this season. His 86th percentile ground ball rate is an elite mark and a great sign of efficiency due to double play potential. He also earns an 84th percentile strikeout rate while limiting walks at a 75th percentile clip. This trio of run prevention tactics has worked for Cavalli this season, and now he draws a weak Angels lineup. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Angels sit 24th in wOBA with an 87 wRC+ and a hefty strikeout rate. Look for another six-inning performance from Cavalli in this matchup.

Get MLB stats, trends and more in our Angels vs Nationals prediction