Best MLB player prop bet for today, 9/21: Acuña Keeps Crushing

Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) returns to the dugout following the fifth inning at Dodger Stadium.
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Ahaan Rungta


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NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email
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With Thursday Night Football posting up a 10-point spread, we’ve got ugly written all over a potential NFL betting card. Let’s find value on the MLB slate. Here is my best player prop bet for Thursday, and don’t forget to check out all of our MLB picks.

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Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) OVER 1.5 total bases (-135)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 0.75u wager.

Drinking juice on hitter props is scary, but when you’re backing an elite hitter in a matchup that should be a cakewalk, it is justifiable and in this case, we’re getting good value. Since August 1, Ronald Acuña Jr. has posted a low 7.4% walk rate but a scorching 188 wRC+, 1.080 OPS, .286 ISO, and 46.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching on the road. Now, he gets highly favorable weather conditions at Nationals Park facing an inexperienced right-handed pitcher.

Nationals starter Jake Irvin has posted an abysmal 5.64 SIERA over his last four starts and on sportsbooks, his earned runs prop is heavily juiced to the “OVER” at 2.5, rightfully so in this tough draw. Although he has found some success in spurts since the All-Star break, it has primarily been through the curveball as his best whiff pitch. However, since August 1, Acuña has posted a 1.775 xSLG against right-handed curveballs, which leads all qualified MLB hitters in that span.

The potential National League MVP should be locked in for at least four plate appearances on Thursday night and get the job done with ease early but even if not, he’ll get to face a Nationals bullpen that ranks 17th in xFIP against right-handed hitters over the last 30 days.

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