Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: More points in Motown

With snow drifts threating to cover the goalposts at Highmark Stadium, Sunday’s NFL Week 11 game between the Browns and Bills has been moved from Buffalo to a neutral site at Ford Field in Detroit. That denies fans a hotly anticipated snow game, but also means the players will now be able to run and throw the ball at the indoor venue, so there are positives and negatives from the move.

The Bills remain Super Bowl favorites despite suffering their third loss of the season in a wild finish against the Vikings last week, while the Browns are just trying to keep their season alive after a miserable loss in Miami dropped them to 3-6. Both teams will be traveling to Detroit for this game with a point to prove, and our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for the big game.

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NFL Week 11 Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills predictions

The Bills have suffered back-to-back losses to the Jets and Vikings and have had a disrupted preparation as they bid to get back on track in what should have been a home game against the Browns. QB Josh Allen has been able to shake off a elbow injury to stay on the field, but has made uncharacteristic and extremely costly errors in both his team’s latest losses. The Bills have other injury issues too, with DE Greg Rousseau, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Tre’Davious White all ruled out of this game.

The Browns went into their bye in high spirits after a dominant Monday night win over the Bengals, but came out of it with a pitiful display at Miami last Sunday, going 7-0 up before collapsing to a 39-17 defeat. They have two more games to negotiate before new QB Deshaun Watson is eligible to play, but backup Jacoby Brissett — or even the offense in general — has not really been the problem for this team this season and they need their defense to look like it did against the Bengals (impressive), rather than the Dolphins (disastrous).

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Browns +7.5, Bills -7.5
Total points over/under: 49.5 points
Money line odds: Browns +290, Bills -345

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Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills expert picks

We have 2 great NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Browns and Bills.

Browns vs Bills point spread pick: Browns +7.5 (-105)

The NFL has moved this game out of Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park to the warm, safe confines of a domed Ford Field in Detroit. The move obviously changes the way we have to look at it from a betting standpoint. The line has moved down and there are no longer any concerns regarding precipitation or high winds. As we saw in Week 10, the Bills are not changing their game-plan in the wake of Josh Allen’s UCL injury and if they want to throw the ball 40 times a game, they will. We should still see a fair amount of RB Devin Singletary, given the fact that the Browns defense ranks dead-last in DVOA against the run and is allowing an average of 131.1 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns given up on the season, but expect the regular dose of aerial attacks from Allen to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and his assortment of pass-catching weapons.

The Bills will need to keep their foot on the gas to maintain control of this game. On the other side, expect the Browns to run hard with Nick Chubb. On the surface, it doesn’t seem like the right move as the Bills rank 6th in DVOA against the run, but Buffalo has allowed 176.3 rushing yards per game over their last 3 (5th-most in the NFL). This happened to them last year as well and plenty of teams took advantage. The Browns will do the same, as they do not want this game to turn into a shootout. Both teams are 4-5 against the spread this year with the Bills going 0-3 during their recent stretch. If the Browns are going to keep this game close, they are going to need to control the clock and the pace of this game. Long, methodical drives led by Chubb should be the answer.

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Browns vs Bills Over/Under totals pick: Over 49.5 (-107)

We have two teams who are very capable of running the football and whose run defense has been lacking in recent weeks. The Browns have allowed more than 130 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns given up on the season. The Bills’ run defense, just as it did last season, is starting to wear down and while they still rank fairly high up overall, they have coughed up an average of 176.3 rushing yards per game over their last 3, which is the 5th-highest in the league. Two teams who run the football effectively usually means the clock continues to run and fewer plays, but things have changed in recent days.

With the game being moved indoors to Ford Field in Detroit, the total has jumped 6 points with the expectation that the Bills will be able to now resume their usual game-plan of throwing the ball 40-50 times and simply use the ground game as a complement. While the Browns are allowing an average of only 218 passing yards per game, we need to understand that total is low because everyone simply runs on them. They rank only 26th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed 13 touchdowns through the air. Eliminating the weather factor now tilts this game away from the hard-nosed, run-heavy game we were expecting, and with the Bills having carte blanche to do whatever they want, the score is likely to climb.

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Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills expert predictions

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