Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Steelers can pull the upset

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws the ball during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field.
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email
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Last week was the best the Pittsburgh Steelers have looked in a month. Pittsburgh got the running game going, Kenny Pickett was solid and the defense was excellent. Ja’Marr Chase is still out for the Bengals this week, meaning that Cincinnati will be without its best downfield threat. The Bengals’ offensive line is still an issue and we don’t expect that to change against a fully healthy Steelers defensive line. All of this sets up an intriguing AFC North contest between rivals.

Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this matchup, so let’s break it all down.

Be sure not to miss any of our NFL picks for Week 11 — we’re 83-64-3 on spreads this season (+24 units!)

NFL Week 11 Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction

The Steelers are at home for the second consecutive week, and they may have turned a corner. Pittsburgh’s defense was dominant for the first time in a while last Sunday in a win over the Saints. The same thing could happen against a beleaguered Bengals offense, especially in a divisional home spot where Mike Tomlin is excellent at covering the number. Furthermore, the Bengals defense is a candidate for regression after overperforming its metrics. This should be a fascinating contest, so let’s get into our expert’s predictions.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers spread, odds & betting lines

Point Spread: Bengals -4, Steelers +4
Total Points Over/Under: 41.5 points
Money Line Odds: Bengals -180, Steelers +165

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers expert picks

We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Bengals vs Steelers.  

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers point spread pick: Steelers +4 (-110)

This is an ideal spot to back a Mike Tomlin team at home. The Steelers as a home ‘dog under Tomlin are covering the spread at an insane rate from Week 5 onward, posting an ATS record of 14-2-1 and an even better 19-3-1 ATS record in a divisional game. The trends from this season bear out that Pittsburgh is worth a look here as well, considering that divisional underdogs between 3-10 points are crushing it this season, to the tune of an 18-6 ATS record on the year. Put that together with a healthy TJ Watt returning last week and a fully healthy Pittsburgh secondary, and you have a Steelers team that is as confident as it will ever be this season. I expect them to play with confidence on Sunday.

On the other side, while the Bengals are fully rested coming off the bye week, they will likely still be missing their biggest contributor on offense. Ja’Marr Chase is unlikely to play this week, which means the Cincinnati passing game will be much less explosive downfield. I still expect Joe Burrow and company to methodically move the ball throughout the game, but the offensive line hasn’t been giving their young quarterback much time to throw this season. That doesn’t bode well against a Steelers front seven that is coming off one of its better games of the year and should delight at the chance to take down a division rival that they’ve owned over the years.

Even with Mitch Trubisky at the helm in Week 1, Pittsburgh was still able to take out a healthy Bengals team on the road. Now they’re catching nearly a touchdown at home? This number seems a bit inflated, especially considering Cincinnati’s struggles on offense against the Browns without Chase. Tomlin is 21-10 ATS against Cincinnati in his career, and I expect the Steelers to keep things close in this one.

Be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under totals pick: Under 41.5 (-110)

If Pittsburgh wants to keep things close, the Steelers typically have to muck things up and make the game ugly. Luckily for them, that shouldn’t be much of a problem on Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense is finally healthy again and taking on a Cincinnati team that will be without its main explosive play generator in Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals have had trouble running the ball this season and I don’t expect that to change against a Steelers defense that is 5th in the league in opponent rush yards per game, allowing just 83.7 yards per game over their last 3 contests.

On the other side, the Bengals defense is a top 10 unit in football, allowing just 20 points per game on the season. I don’t expect either offense to see sustained success, and this total reflects that. Seeing as we’re just getting a bit of value over the key number of 41, I’ll side with the under in this AFC North matchup.

Get all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 11 action.

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