Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Cowboys ready to prove a point

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

One of the more interesting matchups in Week 11 will take place in Minnesota, as the Cowboys take on the Vikings. Following Minnesota’s impressive win over Buffalo, they are underdogs this week. Some believe the wrong team is favored, but our expert analyzed the matchup and came up with his picks for the exciting matchup. This is a big game for both teams since beating the Vikings would prove the Cowboys are a legitimate threat, while Minnesota is looking to prove their win over Buffalo was no fluke. Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for the big game.

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NFL Week 11 Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings predictions

The Vikings are coming off the biggest win of their season, defeating the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime. That extended their winning streak to 7 games, but it won’t get any easier in Week 11 as they face the Cowboys. The explosive Minnesota offense, led by Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, will make for a great matchup against the Dallas defense, which has been one of the strongest in the league this season. It’s a great matchup, and our expert has two picks for the game.

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Cowboys -1.5, Vikings +1.5
Total points over/under: 48 points
Money line odds: Cowboys -125, Vikings +105

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Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings expert picks

We have 2 great NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Cowboys and Vikings.

Cowboys vs Vikings point spread pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-115)

The Vikings beat arguably the best team in the league on the road, while the Cowboys blew a 14-point lead to a lifeless Packers offense. However, I tend to trust the market in these scenarios, and with all the hype Minnesota is currently getting for their victory in Buffalo it feels like an ideal spot to sell high. Keep an eye on the injury status of LT Christian Darrisaw (concussion) and WR Justin Jefferson (toe), as both missed practice time in some capacity this week. If he can’t go, the Vikings will struggle to protect Kirk Cousins against a Cowboys defense ranked 3rd in pass-rush win rate. Darrisaw is currently grading out as the best left tackle in the league and might be the only chance Minnesota has of neutralizing Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. Make no mistake about the polish head coach Kevin O’Connell has brought with him to Minneapolis.
The Vikes are winning close games and have won 7 straight all by 1 score, but I can poke holes in basically every single one of those victories — especially the last 2 games in which they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter against the Commanders and needed 3 turnovers from Josh Allen to stay in it against Buffalo. Dak Prescott is certainly prone to turnover-worthy plays, including 2 picks last week, but my hope is he cleans that up after a couple of poor decisions in Green Bay. Analytically, there’s just nothing that jumps off the page about this Minnesota team — so it’s very fair to expect some regression at some point down the stretch in the win-loss column. Finally, Dallas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 coming off a loss — including 2 wins already this season, one outright as an underdog against Cincinnati in Week 2 and another dominant win as a favorite against the Lions in Week 7.

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Cowboys vs Vikings Over/Under totals pick: Over 48 (-110)

There has not been much movement with this total so far, except for a slight tick up from 47 to 47.5 very early in the week. That is somewhat noteworthy since 47 is a secondary key number, with about 3% of games landing there over the last 5 seasons. But in the grand scheme of the market, I don’t think there’s been any strong positions guiding this total in one direction.

That obviously could change before Sunday, but there are 2 injuries that popped up for Minnesota on Wednesday that are noteworthy, including star LT Christian Darrisaw who missed practice completely after suffering a concussion against the Bills. Star WR Justin Jefferson was also limited with a toe injury. If Darrisaw can’t go, the Vikings’ offense will struggle to protect Kirk Cousins against a Cowboys defense ranked 3rd in the NFL in pass rush win rate and has 2 absolute monsters on the edge with Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. The Jefferson issue is also concerning, as toe injuries have a way of lingering among skill-position players — but we’ll keep an eye on him this week. If both Darrisaw and Jefferson play, I can see this total trending higher over the weekend; these 2 offenses have had plenty of success this season and both are coming off high-scoring games that sailed over the total.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings expert predictions

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