Caleb Wilfinger
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The Packers do not look like a competent football team in any sense of the word at the moment. Even saying that, it’s extremely rare that Aaron Rodgers is an underdog of more than a touchdown in his career. In fact, this is the first time that Rodgers is an underdog of more than 10 points in his career as a starter. Will Green Bay keep sliding, or can the Packers keep it close in Buffalo?
Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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NFL Week 8 Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills prediction
This game is likely going to come down to the Packers defense against this explosive Bills offense. Green Bay does have a solid pass defense, and its weakness really boils down to stopping the run. Since Buffalo doesn’t traditionally like to run all that often, that could bode well for the Packers in this matchup. Our NFL expert leans toward backing the under in this matchup, so that favors the underdog as well. Let’s take a look at the odds, plus our picks and predictions.
Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Packers +10.5 (-110), Bills -10.5 (-110)
Total Points Over/Under: 47.5 points
Money Line Odds: Packers +380, Bills -475
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Be sure to also check some of our other NFL Predictions articles for Week 8 below.
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Green Bay Packers vs Buffalo Bills expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Packers and Bills.
Packers vs Bills point spread pick: Packers +10.5 (-110)
Green Bay is struggling mightily on offense, and these issues have reared their ugly head in consecutive losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders over the last 3 weeks. Now sitting at 3-4, Aaron Rodgers and company hardly look like a fringe playoff team, to say nothing of the Super Bowl contenders that many experts’ thought they would be in the preseason. That brings us to this week’s contest against a Buffalo Bills team that is clearly the best in football, ranking 1st in weighted DVOA per Football Outsiders. Buffalo is coming off a bye and seems to be rolling en route to another AFC East title. With that in mind, why would anyone back the Packers this week?
For starters, this is about as low as the market will go on the Packers. In fact, Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog in his career. Throughout his tenure in Green Bay, the Packers have been more than a 7-point underdog in just 7 games. However, 5 of those 7 games came when Green Bay was forced to start a backup at quarterback. This is uncharted territory for Rodgers and this team, but Matt LaFleur is 10-4 against the spread as an underdog in his time with Green Bay. The Packers defense has been banged up but should be expecting key contributors back for this one. With a top 10 pass defense DVOA, Green Bay is capable of slowing down this explosive Bills offense just enough to keep this within an 11-point margin. In a desperate spot, I’ll hold my nose and take the visitors to stay competitive in primetime.
Be sure to check out our full Packers vs Bills predictions
Packers vs Bills Over/Under totals pick: Under 47.5 (-110)
Due to the potency of the Bills offense, their games tend to skew toward higher totals. However, Buffalo’s top-ranked defense makes it quite hard for these games to exceed 48 points. That’s exactly where we sit at with this number, and I think an under correlates well with the Packers covering this double-digit spread. Green Bay’s defense is susceptible to the run, ranking near the bottom of the league in rush defense DVOA.
However, that’s not typically what Buffalo wants to do on offense. Against this solid pass defense, Josh Allen will need to take the short and intermediate throws in order to methodically move the ball downfield, limiting the chances for explosive plays. On the other side, the connection between Rodgers and his wide receivers has clearly been out of sync, hampering Green Bay’s ability in the passing game. Look for the Packers to try and shorten the game by running the ball and grinding out the clock against this stout defense.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 8 action.
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