MLB St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves same game parlay at (+316 odds) today 7/6 - Fried stars in pitching duel

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Friday, July 1, 2022, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
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Keith

MLB · 1 month ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

The Braves will be looking for the series win on Wednesday, as they took games one and two. It’s an excellent pitching matchup in Atlanta tonight and we have a +316 same game parlay for the action.

Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (-150)

Cardinals vs Braves under 7.5 (+130)

Parlay odds: +316

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts (-150)

Max Fried has been a true ace for the Braves this season, but he will be challenged tonight by the Cardinals. St. Louis has hit left-handed pitching very well this season, ranking 5th in OPS and 6th in slugging percentage against southpaws. More importantly, the Cards have only 128 strikeouts against left-handed pitching — which is the 2nd fewest in baseball. The Cardinals will display a righty-heavy lineup tonight that will feature Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson and more. 

The southpaw’s 23.9% strikeout rate puts him in the 57th percentile, so Fried is average when it comes to strikeouts. He relies on his slider and curveball for punch-outs and that will be much tougher against a Cardinals offense that has a lot of right-handed hitters. St. Louis should be able to put the ball in play against Fried and not take strike three a lot, so take the under on his strikeout prop.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves under 7.5 runs (+130)

This is an alternate total because I believe the original total is set far too high. Fried has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his 8 starts and the Braves happen to be 8-0 in those starts. More importantly for this bet, opponents average 2.38 runs per game in those 8 games. If Fried and the solid Atlanta bullpen can limit the Cardinals to 3 runs or less, this game will likely stay below the total with room to spare.

The under is 4-1 in Miles Mikolas’ last 5 starts and those games finished with an average of 6.2 runs. Also, in those 5 starts Mikolas was able to complete at least 6.0 innings on 4 occasions — but I don’t expect him to go past 6 innings in tonight’s game. The St. Louis bullpen ranks 1st in ERA and 3rd in FIP in the last two weeks, so the Cardinals should use their elite bullpen to their advantage.

Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+911 odds!)

What is a Same Game Parlay?

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