Ricky Dimon
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Can the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks stay alive at home on Thursday night? They trail their respective conference semifinal series against the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns 3-2 after both lost on the road on Tuesday.
But we aren’t worried about the big picture at this point in time. Right now it’s time to take a look at the best first-basket bets to be made on Thursday. So far in this postseason, my first-basket bets have been extremely profitable. I nailed 2 plays on the same day during the play-in tournament – Kyrie Irving at +600 and Anthony Edwards at +700 for a 2-leg parlay that paid out at +5500. After that I cashed two consecutive Donovan Mitchell plays, both at +500 (Game 2 and Game 3 of the Utah-Dallas series), before hitting another bullseye with Phoenix’s Mikal Bridges at +1000. On Tuesday I was all over Joel Embiid at +440. Let’s keep the momentum going!
Heat vs 76ers: Joel Embiid (+430)
Needless to say, the tipoff is the most important factor that should be looked at when deciding on first-basket bets. Obviously players on whichever team gains possession are going to have by far the best opportunities. Both Embiid and Bam Adebayo are better than average in the tipoff circle, so this could obviously go either way. However, I will lead toward Embiid. The masked man lost it to Adebayo upon his return from injury in Game 3, but with a game under his belt he stepped up and won it on Sunday. Adebayo came out on top on Tuesday, so including one regular-season matchup that went to Embiid they are tied 2-2 in head-to-head hump balls. Keep in mind that Embiid himself still managed to score the first basket in Game 5 after Max Strus missed a shot on Miami’s opening possession.
Either way, I like the Sixers to get off to a hot start at home. Embiid was a +440 winner in Game 5, and with his odds only reduced to +430 I am going right back to the well. Being at home will only energize Embiid and company to come out firing, not to mention that this is now a must-win situation. Early returns in Embiid’s comeback are encouraging. He delivered 18 points in Game 3 and then scored 24 on 7-for-13 shooting in Game 4. In addition to his first basket on Tuesday, the Cameroon native also scored his team’s first basket this past Sunday. It’s pretty clear that even as the favorite Embiid is the best value play.
Don’t miss our same game parlay for Heat vs 76ers (+968 odds!)
Suns vs Mavericks: Mikal Bridges (+950)
The Suns-Mavericks series is a much different story in the jump-ball tournament. There should be absolutely no doubt about which team has the first possession. Phoenix big man Deandre Ayton won 66.7 percent of his tips in the regular season (44 of 66) and he has been the absolute best at this discipline during the playoffs (11-for-12). Ayton will once again be going up against Dwight Powell of the Mavericks, who is one of the NBA’s worst at jump balls. Powell won 15 and lost 37 in the regular season (28.9 percent) and he is 1-for-11 in the playoffs. Unsurprisingly, Ayton had no trouble taking the jump balls to begin each of the first five contests in this series.
If the Suns corral the ball off the tip, don’t be surprised if Bridges becomes the beneficiary. The former Villanova star has cashed for me once in these playoffs and he has continued to involve himself early in games. He scored his team’s first points on Tuesday, albeit after Luka Doncic had already gotten Dallas on the scoreboard. Bridges has posted double-figures in six of the last seven games, including 31 and 18 in the last two of Phoenix’s first-round date with New Orleans. He has attempted at least 13 field goals in two of the last three contests. At +950, he has great value.
If you want to go really big, an Embiid-Bridges parlay pays out at +5465!
Check out Brian Scalabrine’s best bets for Suns vs Mavs and Heat vs 76ers!
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