Andrew Wilsher
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We’re already almost at the midway point of the 2022 NFL season as we enter Week 8, and it’s fair to say that our expert handicappers have been on fire so far. Our team is an incredible 63-45-1 on spreads this season, which is a 58.3% success rate! Our NFL Best Bets have been just as great, as the team are a combined 29-11 on 3-star plays this season (72.5% success rate!) which is good for +34.23 units of profit! Now they’re back for more, so let’s dive into 4 of our NFL Week 8 best bets.
Don’t miss any of our NFL picks for Week 8 — we’re 63-45-1 on spreads this season (+26.3 units!)
Jared Smith: Patriots -1.5 over Jets (-110)
Bill Belichick has won 12 straight over his former employer and 32 of the last 38 dating back to 2003. Sure a lot of those games were with Tom Brady under center, but the last 4 weren’t — including a 79-19 scoring margin in the 2 meetings last season with Mac Jones starting. Jones will get the nod again this week despite the emergence of Bailey Zappe. Don’t get me wrong; I love Zappe Hour more than anyone. But Jones is the guy in New England, and I think he will play much better this week.
New England will be much more buttoned up on defense this week against a less mobile QB in Zach Wilson and more predictable Jets offense that will be missing 2 key pieces in the run game. Rookie star RB Breece Hall is out for the year with a torn ACL and starting RT Alijah Vera-Tucker is also done for the season with a triceps injury. Stopping the run has been a problem for the Patriots’ defense all season, allowing almost 50% of rushing plays to be graded successful, but they’re catching the Jets at the perfect time.
Be sure to check out our full New England Patriots vs New York Jets predictions
Howard Bender: Titans -2 over Texans (-110)
The key factor for the Titans is obviously Derrick Henry. He ranks 4th in total rushing yards, 4th in yards per game, and also 4th in rushing touchdowns. He averages just over 22 carries per game and remains the focal point of Tennessee’s offense. The Texans rank dead-last in DVOA against the run and they are allowing the most rushing yards per game. We expect the Texans to stack the box to stop the run, but they will likely fail as all other clubs have in the past.
The Texans’ offense is much more balanced, and one very interesting thing we’ve noticed is that Lovie Smith will continue to run the ball with Dameon Pierce, no matter the score. But the Titans are allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game and have only allowed one rushing touchdown, so for Houston to stay in this one, Davis Mills is going to have to take it to the air. The Titans’ secondary is weak, but not to the point where Mills is going to be able to match Henry’s overall production. The game should stay reasonably close, with both clubs running the ball so heavily — but the Titans should come out ahead.
Be sure to check out our full Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Steelers +10.5 over Eagles (-110)
It’s the battle for Pennsylvania here as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Eagles are the NFL’s last unbeaten team, and they look like the team to beat in the NFC, while the Steelers appear headed for a disappointing campaign. That being said, I’m taking the points with the underdog. Getting double digits is just too good to pass up. The last time Mike Tomlin was getting double digits was just two weeks ago when Pittsburgh played the Bucs, and they ended up winning that one outright. The Steelers always seem to play best when they’re counted out, and I don’t think this Eagles team is nearly as good as their record indicates. Their most recent victory was at home against Cooper Rush, and their win before that was pretty uninspiring in a three-point game against the Cardinals.
They didn’t beat Rush by double digits even though he gifted them three interceptions, so I can’t count on them to win by multiple touchdowns here. Kenny Pickett should only continue to get better as he gets more reps, and he’s faced a tough schedule in his first few NFL appearances. The Eagles are getting all this hype, but I don’t think they’ve been that dominant, and I still have big questions about their offense. The Steelers are starting to get a little healthier, and I think Pickett is better than his numbers suggest.
Be sure to check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles predictions
Ricky Dimon: Dolphins vs Lions under 51.5 points (-110)
When the Lions are involved in the largest total of the entire week, you have to like the under’s chances. After all, these are not the Lions of old — not even the Lions of the first few weeks of this season. Their 2 most recent point outputs are 0 (against New England) and 6 (against Dallas). Given all the injuries they are dealing with, especially to pass-catchers and offensive linemen, things may not get any better in the immediate future.
Although this is a decent matchup for the Dolphins’ offense, keep in mind that they have scored between 15 and 21 points in all but 1 game this season. The under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 overall, 6-2 in their last 8 on the road and 11-4 in their last 15 against opponents with losing records. It is also 6-2 in the Lions’ last 8 against opponents with winning records and 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous outing. I’m backing the under and doing so with confidence.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions predictions
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