Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
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UFC Fight Night 220 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a light heavyweight fight between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +427 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 220 predictions for the full 5-fight Main Card.
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Nikita Krylov ML over Ryan Spann (-170)
Nikita Krylov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 29-9. He is 10-7 in the UFC, most recently beating Volkan Oezdemir by unanimous decision in October 2022. Krylov is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 2.50 strikes, and his striking defense is 44%. Krylov is a decent grappler, averaging 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 35% and a takedown defense of 53%.
Krylov is a medium-sized favorite, but still looks to be the right side in this fight. He has the better striking and grappling and has won by finish 27 times in his career, compared to Ryan Spann, who has won 18 times by finish. They both have won their last 2 fights, but Krylov will be the play because he has a much better finish rate.
Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen – Fight to go the Distance – No (-250)
Andre Muniz is a heavy favorite in this fight, so his money line looks to be a little risky given how Brendan Allen can finish fights. They both have seen 3 of their last 4 UFC fights end inside the distance, therefore backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
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Augusto Sakai vs Don’Tale Mayes – Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
This fight is fairly even with Augusto Sakai set as a small favorite. He has lost 4 UFC fights in a row, so backing him looks to be a little too risky. The more likely result looks to be a fight that ends inside the distance. Sakai has seen all of his last 4 fights end inside the distance, and 7 of his 9 career UFC fights, while Don’Tale Mayes has had 6 of his 7 UFC fights do the same. Because both fighters have a solid finish rate, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the lean.
Nurullo Aliev ML over Rafael Alves (-180)
Nurullo Aliev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his official UFC debut. Aliev is averaging 6.52 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 0.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%.
Even though this is the UFC debut for Aliev, he looks to be the right side. His striking and grappling is better than Rafael Alves, therefore backing Aliev to remain unbeaten will be the play.
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