AFC West Predictions & Best Bets 2026: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers & Raiders
With the Patriots and Seahawks set for a Wednesday night kickoff on September 9, the 2026 NFL regular season is almost upon us. The marathon battle for the Lombardi Trophy will get underway before we know it, and our experts are building up to the new season with a ton of content in our NFL futures guide — which includes our Super Bowl winner picks, MVP best bets, player award predictions and much more.
For now, our handicapping team is breaking down every division with in-depth team analysis and best bets. Let’s dive into the AFC West, a fascinating division and the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angels Chargers, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. Here are the NFL odds and our expert NFL picks for this fascinating division.
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2026 AFC West Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing
- Kansas City Chiefs (+160)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+190)
- Denver Broncos (+225)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)
Kansas City Chiefs (+160)
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback, the Chiefs have been a mainstay at the top of the NFL. Now, after three Super Bowls and nearly a decade of dominance in the AFC West, there are more questions than ever surrounding Kansas City heading into the 2026 campaign. For starters, Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL he suffered last December — easily the most significant injury of his career to this point. While reports suggest that the future Hall of Famer should be ready to play in Week 1, it's not a guarantee that Mahomes will be back to peak form early on. The pass catchers feature a host of familiar names, with Travis Kelce back for potentially his final season, along with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. The biggest difference is at running back, where Kenneth Walker III comes in to bolster a ground game that has struggled mightily in recent seasons. With Eric Bieniemy returning at offensive coordinator, Kansas City has gotten the gang back together. It wouldn't surprise me if the offense got back on track this fall.
For the first time in a number of years, Steve Spagnuolo's defense was largely ineffective at generating pressure in 2025. Kansas City was ranked 25th in sack rate when blitzing, which has been a calling card of this unit in the past. Kansas City revamped this unit in the offseason, adding a myriad of younger players that should add some much-needed juice alongside Chris Jones and the old guard. Ultimately, the Chiefs are certainly due for some positive regression given their historically terrible 1-9 record in one-score games a season ago. That certainly feels like an outlier in the Mahomes era, and even when factoring in some uncertainty I have with this roster, I'm projecting a bounce-back season for Andy Reid's group following a humiliating end to the 2025 campaign.
Kansas City Chiefs best bet: Over 9.5 wins (-150)
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Los Angeles Chargers (+190)
At this stage in his career, the conversation around Justin Herbert is only going to get louder until he finally overcomes the demons and wins his first playoff game. Fortunately for the Oregon product, this will likely be the best offense that Herbert has had at his disposal in his career. The offensive line boasts a pair of elite tackles that should set the tone on the edge, and the insertion of Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator is one that should unlock the Chargers' ground game and make them more versatile with their personnel groupings in the passing game. On the other side, the loss of Jesse Minter as defensive coordinator could prove to be a significant blow for a defense that ranked among the best in the NFL in points allowed over the last few seasons. However, Chris O'Leary has been with the team previously, and the personnel combined with their additions in this past NFL Draft are enough to keep me fairly optimistic about this unit.
While there is plenty of reason to be curious about the Chargers as a potential contender, they were not dealt a friendly schedule in the slightest. Los Angeles is going to be operating at a rest disadvantage in 7 games, including 4 contests against opponents coming off a bye week and the 3rd-toughest schedule of opponents from Week 3 onward. Despite all of this, there are 5 games on the slate that should be fairly routine victories and if Los Angeles is able to stay remotely healthy on the offensive line, there should be spots where the offense can flex its muscle and the defense can be opportunistic enough to create some game-breaking turnovers. It's not my favorite bet on the board by any means, but I'll grab the over with a Chargers team that has won 11 games in each of the last two seasons.
Los Angeles Chargers best bet: Over 9.5 wins (-130)
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Denver Broncos (+225)
I thought I was going to be a lot lower on Denver heading into this season, and it's easy to understand why the Broncos are listed behind Kansas City and Los Angeles in the market, despite winning the AFC West in 2025. Last season was a magical one for Sean Payton's group, as Denver finished with an astounding 11-2 record in one-score games, which tied the NFL record for most one-score wins in a single season. However, there's too much to like about the Broncos from a roster perspective, especially now that they've added Jaylen Waddle to beef up an already solid wide receiver room. Denver brings back one of the best offensive lines in football, and Bo Nix appears to be just fine in training camp after undergoing foot surgery in the offseason. Payton's offense should take another step forward this fall.
Regardless of how the offense performs, the Broncos' defense is more than enough to keep them in almost any game on the schedule. Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen lead a strong group of pass rushers, while Pat Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL and is coming off another excellent season. The early-season schedule is brutal, but if Denver can get through the first six weeks unscathed, it should be much smoother sailing for the remainder of the campaign. In fact, the Broncos are only projected to face three playoff teams over their last nine games, which should give them plenty of opportunities to stack up wins down the stretch. Even if we see a drop-off from a season ago, Denver still should have enough to exceed this win total.
Denver Broncos best bet: Over 9.5 wins (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)
To round out the AFC West, rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza is going to attempt to change the culture in Las Vegas — if he can get on the field. Kirk Cousins is projected to be the Week 1 starter, which leaves me with some serious questions about the Raiders' plan for this season. I like the addition of Klint Kubiak at head coach, and his schematic prowess should give Las Vegas a much higher floor on offense at a minimum. However, I still have major concerns with an offensive line that was abysmal a season ago, and a wide receiving corps that should be among the worst in football. The lone bright spots are Ashton Jeanty at running back and Brock Bowers at tight end, but opposing defenses will certainly be zeroed in on slowing down the two best athletes on this Raiders roster; that doesn't bode well for Las Vegas.
On the other side of the ball, I don't have much faith in a Raiders defense that was 29th in DVOA on third down a season ago, and they consistently failed to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks in key spots. The linebacker room was entirely remade in the offseason, while the secondary is expected to be a massive work in progress once again. To make matters worse, the schedule does this team no favors, and almost all of the Raiders' easiest games on paper are on the road. It's hard to get to seven wins given the roster and schedule, so I'll take the under with Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Raiders best bet: Under 6.5 wins (-140)
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AFC West division predictions
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Denver Broncos
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Las Vegas Raiders
AFC West best bet: Chiefs/Broncos division dual forecast (+220)
As previously mentioned, the Chiefs feel like a team that is due for a massive dose of positive regression following their historically poor record in one-score games last season. Assuming that Mahomes is healthy and the run game takes a step forward with Bieniemy back at offensive coordinator, it's hard not to see Kansas City finish at or near the top of this division. And even after baking in some obvious close-game regression for the Broncos, there's too much to like about this Denver team compared to some of the questions I have with Los Angeles. At an implied probability of just over 31%, I'll take a shot with the Chiefs and Broncos to finish as the top two teams in the AFC West.
NFL Division Predictions & Team-by-Team Guide
Want more NFL division predictions? We've covered all the other 7 divisions and given our best bets for EVERY team! Check 'em out below:
- AFC East Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - will it be the Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots that win the division?
- AFC North Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - get our top pick for the division featuring the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers
- AFC South Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - can the Jacksonville Jaguars repeat, or will the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts dethrone them?
- NFC East Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - our expert's best bets for the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles & Washington Commanders
- NFC North Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - check out our +930 pick on a team in this division
- NFC South Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - who will be the best in the worst division in football?
- NFC West Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - in arguably the NFL's hottest division, will the LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers reign supreme?
