NFC South Predictions & Best Bets 2026: Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers & Saints
We are closing in on the start of the 2026 NFL regular season. Week 1 can’t come soon enough – but before it does, we have time to preview all of the upcoming action and make our predictions and best bets.
Pickswise’s extensive coverage continues with a breakdown of the NFC South, which is perennially one of the worst divisions in football. Nothing is expected to change, as the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not inspire a ton of confidence. There is a good chance that none of the four teams are terrible, but not a single one looks like a serious contender to make a deep playoff run.
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NFC South odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
- New Orleans Saints +270
- Carolina Panthers +310
- Atlanta Falcons +400
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Atlanta Falcons
The floor is very low for the Falcons. Perhaps only the Browns have a bigger question mark at quarterback, as Atlanta’s starting job will go to either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. Neither one inspires much confidence – largely due to injury history, but also because of erratic play even when healthy. Defensively, the Falcons lost Jalon Walker for the season and James Pearce Jr. is suspended for eight games. Nonetheless, this team has some star power on offense thanks to RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London in addition to TE Kyle Pitts.
The defense is deep and therefore could make up for the aforementioned absences, especially when JPJ returns. In a weak division, the Falcons should be able to go .500 against the Panthers, Saints and Bucs.
Atlanta Falcons best bet: Over 2.5 division wins (-140)
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Carolina Panthers
Eight wins were enough to win the NFC South for Carolina in 2025 (via tiebreakers after finishing in a deadlock with Atlanta and Tampa Bay). That means the Panthers have to play a first-place schedule this year, but they still should be able to hit the same number – if not more.
Bryce Young has been making strides to the extent that he looks like a capable starting quarterback in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he is good enough to take his team to the next level, but keeping this franchise respective seems well within reason for the former No. 1 overall pick. The defense is decent, too, and “decent” on both sides of the ball could be enough to win the division.
Carolina Panthers best bet: Over 7.5 wins (+115)
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New Orleans Saints
Although the Saints went 6-11 last season, there are some positive vibes going into 2026 after they went 4-1 over the last five games. Under first-year head coach Kellen Moore, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough impressed down the stretch. That being said, the sample size of success was small for the second-round pick out of Louisville. To say that the jury is still out on Shough would be a gross understatement. Chris Olave is the only reliable pass-catcher, but he is extremely injury-prone.
On the other side of the ball, defensive tackle Bryan Bresee suffered a torn ACL during training camp and is out for the season. At relatively long odds, there is value on the Saints being fourth out of four in the NFC South – again.
New Orleans Saints best bet: To finish in last place in the division (+300)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It has been a rough preseason for Tampa Bay. Defensive tackle Vita Vea is demanding a trade and quarterback Baker Mayfield is disgruntled after failing to reach an agreement on a contract extension. The Mike Evans era is over, too, as the veteran wide receiver has taken his talents to San Francisco. There is plenty of talent on this team and linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. was probably a steal at No. 15 in the draft, but for the most part it feels like this is a franchise on the way down as opposed to the way up – at least for the time being.
I expect the Bucs to be playing from behind a fair amount, which means Mayfield will be airing it out early and often. The Oklahoma product has thrown for at least 3693 yards in all three of his teams in Tampa, including more than 4000 on two occasions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 3599.5 passing yards (+100)
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NFC South division predictions
- Carolina Panthers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
NFC South best bet: Panthers to win the division (+310)
If there is a team on the rise in this division, it’s the Panthers... and they already won it last year! As such, they have great value to go back-to-back at quite long odds. Carolina is not going to be anything special unless Young makes a sudden leap into stardom, but it can simply win the NFC South basically by default – as it did last year. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons, Saints and Bucs once again hand it to the Panthers on a silver platter.
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NFL Division Predictions & Team-by-Team Guide
Want more NFL division predictions? We've covered all the other 7 divisions and given our best bets for EVERY team! Check 'em out below:
- AFC East Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - will it be the Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots that win the division?
- AFC North Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - get our top pick for the division featuring the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers
- AFC South Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - can the Jacksonville Jaguars repeat, or will the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts dethrone them?
- AFC West Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - will the Kansas City Chiefs bounce back? Will the Denver Broncos stay on top? Or can the LA Chargers pull through?
- NFC East Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - our expert's best bets for the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles & Washington Commanders
- NFC North Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - check out our +930 pick on a team in this division
- NFC West Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - in arguably the NFL's hottest division, will the LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers reign supreme?
