AFC East Predictions & Best Bets 2026: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots & Jets
We are approaching the 2026 NFL regular season. Week 1 can’t come soon enough – but before it does, we have time to preview all of the upcoming action and make our predictions and best bets. Pickswise’s extensive coverage continues with a breakdown of the AFC East, which once again looks like a two-horse race. The New England Patriots are the defending AFC champions, while the Josh Allen-led Buffalo Bills are perennial contenders. As usual, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins will probably stink. Here at Pickswise, our experts have combed through all the major NFL futures betting markets to deliver their NFL predictions and NFL best bets — including the Super Bowl winner, MVP winner and EVERY player award!
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AFC East odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
- Buffalo Bills -136
- New England Patriots +125
- New York Jets +1900
- Miami Dolphins +4000
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Buffalo Bills (-136)
Buffalo was consistently very good under former head coach Sean McDermott. However, it never got over the hump. The higher-ups finally decided that they would never take the next step with that coaching staff, so McDermott is out and Joe Brady is in. Other than that, though, it should be more of the same in Buffalo with Allen under center. The star QB is a perennial MVP contender and gives his team a chance to win every time it takes the field.
Allen has some extra help, too, in the form of new wide receiver DJ Moore. I don’t see any dominant team in the AFC now that the Chiefs – even if Patrick Mahomes – are no longer the exact same Chiefs, so there is no reason why the Bills can’t win the division and even make it to the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills best bet: To win the AFC (+510)
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Miami Dolphins (+4000)
The Dolphins are in total rebuild mode. They have a new head coach (Jeff Hafley), a new quarterback (Malik Willis) and traded receiver Jaylen Waddle to Denver for a first-round pick (which turned into cornerback Chris Johnson). Still, all rebuilds are not equal. It’s not like this team is terrible. Miami compiled a somewhat respectable 7-10 record last season and has not won fewer than seven games since 2019.
Willis impressed with Green Bay while filling in for an injured Jordan Love at times in 2025, and De’Von Achane is a better-than-average running back. Included on the schedule are two games against the Jets (as always) and a season opener against the Kirk Cousins-led Raiders. There will be some opportunities for Hafley’s squad to win games.
Miami Dolphins best bet: Over 3.5 wins (-150)
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New England Patriots (+125)
The Patriots were certainly ahead of schedule last season in a new era led by head coach Mike Vrabel. In Vrabel’s first year, the Pats went 14-3 and advanced to the Super Bowl. Nonetheless, I’m not sold. New England won seven regular-season games by six points or fewer, and it may have (probably would have?) lost to Denver in the AFC Championship if Bo Nix had not been injured and a major snowstorm hadn't broken out. A lot of things went right for the Patriots last season, and getting basically all of the luck on their side twice in a row seems unlikely.
AJ Brown’s arrival will help the offense, but I still don’t see it being a consistent unit. New England almost certainly won’t sweep Buffalo, and at least one hiccup against either the Dolphins or Jets is well within reason.
New England Patriots best bet: Under 4.5 division wins (-165)
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New York Jets (+1900)
There are some things to like in New York. QB Geno Smith has a ton of experience, Breece Hall is a capable RB, and the pass-catching corps includes Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and rookie Omar Cooper Jr. The defense will probably be awful again, but it at least added rookie DE David Bailey. It’s hard to get a great read on the Jets. They could be absolutely awful. Or they could win a handful of games if a proven quarterback like Smith clicks with weapons like Hall, Wilson and Cooper – and if Bailey revitalizes the defense.
Instead, I would look to an individual market and back Cooper to have a pretty big season. Smith is a gunslinger who will make a ton of mistakes but is also likely to throw for a bunch of yards – especially since his team will be playing from behind more often than not. Cooper was a yards-per-reception machine during his career at Indiana.
New York Jets best bet: Omar Cooper Jr. Over 499.5 receiving yards (-110)
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AFC East division predictions
- Buffalo Bills
- New England Patriots
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
AFC East best bet: Bills-Patriots 1-2 exacta (+130)
I don’t love the value on Buffalo to win the division well into minus money (-136), but bumping the payout to +130 is enticing. It’s almost impossible to see either New York or Miami breaking into the top 2 barring a catastrophic injury – or several – involving either Buffalo or New England, so throwing the Patriots into second place is a low-risk maneuver.
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NFL Division Predictions & Team-by-Team Guide
Want more NFL division predictions? We've covered all the other 7 divisions and given our best bets for EVERY team! Check 'em out below:
- AFC North Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - get our top pick for the division featuring the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers
- AFC South Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - can the Jacksonville Jaguars repeat, or will the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts dethrone them?
- AFC West Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - will the Kansas City Chiefs bounce back? Will the Denver Broncos stay on top? Or can the LA Chargers pull through?
- NFC East Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - our expert's best bets for the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles & Washington Commanders
- NFC North Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - check out our +930 pick on a team in this division
- NFC South Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - who will be the best in the worst division in football?
- NFC West Predictions & Best Bets 2026 - in arguably the NFL's hottest division, will the LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers reign supreme?
